You can check my previous calls on this name with regards to the fundamentals of the trade. This trade however is purely based on technicals and the shorter tf. As you can see there is a classic bearish flag that has formed on the 4h chart.
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As you can see, this is moving exactly as anticipated. Insiders who bought and are buying in hopes of propping up the stock with the proverbial "show of confidence", will be the ultimate bag holders. Don't be a bag holder alongside them, let them hold the bags finally. Remember, we have already successfully traded this on the horrific fundamentals of the mall REIT outlook from it's $183 level all the way down to the mid $40's with leap puts bought in March 2019 that were cashed out in March 2020 near $100 in the money! That was the fundamentals trade, we are now in a TA trade.
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SPG has to now sue already distressed retailers for rent owed. How on earth can this translate into a positive for SPG? Retail as we know it is f^%!ed. I added puts on this move up. Always remember to take some profits when the trade moves in your favor.
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Adding leap PUTs
What if the GAP decides to fold? which is a REAL possibility. I am fully prepared for these puts to go to zero if this company can rescue the entire retail space. If that happens my puts deserve to go to zero and hat's off to SPG.
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Another win for well placed puts. SPG is the gift that keeps on giving! The transfer of wealth is in process.
It would be nice to see an update to this idea given all that's happened since May.
Its clear to me that the market has become unhinged given the unexpected price-action behavior coupled with REIT's in general showing a lack of production (only barely making debt service for SPG), significant rent deferrals, forced buy-ins for certain tenants, and yet their stock price has risen much higher across the board even though the outstanding stock shares have been diluted significantly (at least 7.2%) and they are paying out an unchanging dividend amid all this.
mtraderz
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would you update this idea please?
mtraderz
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let's hope $63 area holds as a resistance
streetgainer
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Pre-markets don’t count.
mtraderz
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It's being traded higher in pre-markets today, do you think that's a valid reversal?
norequests
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Aside from the TA, Nieman Marcus, jcrew, true religión bankruptcies...
streetgainer
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@norequests, Yes, I've had the rent destruction fundamentals short trade on since 2017. All listed above in the "Related Ideas".