Morning Notes 07/22/19-Gary
Trading Environment-Short Term: Current Environment-Bearish
Hi Everyone,
Futures are up some this morning, but right at a pivotal point here. The /es has to get above the 50/200 ma's which have crossed to the downside (2989/2994) The crossing of the averages is your basic technical analysis, but I use it to learn more about what is going on with the current "Fed Induced" spike rally from 2720 lows. Looking at just the /es (SPX futures) we have not had a 50/200 crossing to the downside since that started, so seeing one now does give us some important information, this rally is running on fumes right now. From a history view, the previous 50/200 crossing down has produced between 80-90 point down moves. With that information and using history as our guide, we should still see about 65-ish more points down before a low is in place.
I do want to want to be very clear, just because previous crossing ma's have produced 80-90 points down before resuming higher, doesn't mean it has to just drop 80-90 points and it will be a great buying opportunity! The patterns-technical's and time are much different now than then. If the pattern that is in place (80-90 points down) is going to be wrong, it will be wrong with more downside, not less. We are as overextended as I have seen these markets in years. I am still on the side that we will be testing the 2800/2700 area if/when the top is in place. But for now, lets see how the bears/bulls react at the 2989/2994 resistance zone.
Today range for the spx 2991 high and 2978 low (gap Numbers) A break of 2991 the SPX should try for the spx should try for 3000/3006 A push below 2978 we could see 2972/2964. G-
SPX CASH 60 minute Technicals
Stochastics: Neutral
Divergences- No Divergences
Resistance Levels: R1-2991 R2-3000 R3 3006
Support Levels: S1-2978 S2-2972 S3 2964
Trending Pivots: Neutral/Lower
Trading Environment-Short Term: Current Environment-Bearish
Hi Everyone,
Futures are up some this morning, but right at a pivotal point here. The /es has to get above the 50/200 ma's which have crossed to the downside (2989/2994) The crossing of the averages is your basic technical analysis, but I use it to learn more about what is going on with the current "Fed Induced" spike rally from 2720 lows. Looking at just the /es (SPX futures) we have not had a 50/200 crossing to the downside since that started, so seeing one now does give us some important information, this rally is running on fumes right now. From a history view, the previous 50/200 crossing down has produced between 80-90 point down moves. With that information and using history as our guide, we should still see about 65-ish more points down before a low is in place.
I do want to want to be very clear, just because previous crossing ma's have produced 80-90 points down before resuming higher, doesn't mean it has to just drop 80-90 points and it will be a great buying opportunity! The patterns-technical's and time are much different now than then. If the pattern that is in place (80-90 points down) is going to be wrong, it will be wrong with more downside, not less. We are as overextended as I have seen these markets in years. I am still on the side that we will be testing the 2800/2700 area if/when the top is in place. But for now, lets see how the bears/bulls react at the 2989/2994 resistance zone.
Today range for the spx 2991 high and 2978 low (gap Numbers) A break of 2991 the SPX should try for the spx should try for 3000/3006 A push below 2978 we could see 2972/2964. G-
SPX CASH 60 minute Technicals
Stochastics: Neutral
Divergences- No Divergences
Resistance Levels: R1-2991 R2-3000 R3 3006
Support Levels: S1-2978 S2-2972 S3 2964
Trending Pivots: Neutral/Lower