The chance for a move up to the target of 2828 decreased in the last days, but even a move higher to only 2690 would be a win now from 2651.
Reason for going long is among other things the previous 3-days of declines in a row with a larger than -1% loss each day. Which increases the odds for a move in other direction.
Entry: 2651 Stop loss: 2563 Target: 2828
Trade active
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The S&P 500 approached the low at 2647-2648 a second time today on Friday and made a higher low, which is when the trade went active at 2651 before more higher lows followed intra-day.
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The position remained in profit over the weekend.
Friday closed at 2691,25. Today's Monday open was weaker around 2681 points.
I raise the stop loss from 2563 to 2644, because I don't see 2647 holding for a third time if the market drops down there once again - but allowing a small room of error in case there is a retest of Friday's low.
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On Monday the S&P 500 closed strongly higher at 2720,94.
I raise the stop loss from 2644 to 2663. Meaning there would be a little profit left for the long from 2651 in case the market drops sharply lower.
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I opened a short at 2715 on Wednesday to hedge the long position from 2651.
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The hedge was not needed (in hindsight). The S&P 500 continued to trend higher and higher after March 7. Today the S&P 500 is trading above 2755, more than 100 points above where I went long.
I raise the stop loss for the long from 2663 to 2683.
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The S&P 500 has been trading today above 2801, almost exactly 150 points above where I went long. But then the market declined strongly intra-day, thereby failing to hold the 2800 area.
I raise the stop loss for the long from 2683 to 2711. And if I see more weakness I might close the long, without waiting that the market reaches my target area between 2820-2835.
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The high for the S&P 500 has been the peak for the last days at 2801.90. Since then the market declined strongly. Today on Friday the market failed to rally at the open despite the mostly closed gap and is in a choppy sideways trading range above 2754.
I raise the stop loss for the long from 2711 to 2751. Because I don't want to hold the long over the upcoming weekend in case the market drops below 2750 today,
Trade closed manually
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The S&P 500 actually fell below 2750 on Friday later in the trading session, with a low of 2749.97. At least the market didn't drop only to 2750.97 ... that would have been twice as annoying.
Thanks Chartart, 2820 looking good for now (ye gods forgive me for tempting fate). Targeting lower again after that. Would welcome your view on how this might play out over next 6 months or assuming corrective waves down before recommencing climb to the 3K+ later this year
ChartArt
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@peterhowitt, "2820 looking good for now. Targeting lower again after that. "
I'm not very confident that the market is going to reach the target, but it was the next best price area where I see very strong resistance. That's why I used 2820 as target.
"Would welcome your view on how this might play out over next 6 months"
I see more swings up and down in the next half year, compared to the straight line up last year. Best case is sideways with more volatility.
thesilverbullet
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We have a downtrend now. Dont think we break it until at least June.
@AbrahamZ, If we break out next couple days sure, I just don't think that is happening though. I will buy will break out though for sure if that is what happens :)
ChartArt
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@thesilverbullet, Did the S&P 500 breakout in your view after going again above 2800 today?
thesilverbullet
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@ChartArt, 2802 was the fib and it failed to break it , now we are coming off from the fib, i have some trends i am watching now, basically you wait to trade the downtrend, we should come down to the downtrend and look for support there.