Here is an update to my S&P 500 waves since 1995. It seems pretty clear to me that the S&P is in a corrective wave based on the 1W timescale.
I am not saying there is not more upside. Right now the S&P has only hit a Fib extension of 1.4 instead of 1.6. Maybe good earnings from Apple, Google, and Amazon can push it the rest of the way. The tech sector has completely held up this market until now, so why not longer. It seems that many of those stock had not hit their 2.0 fib ext before the market crash in March. However, reality will set in at some point. Beating earnings estimates based on 50% loss from last year can only take this market so far. Maybe the massive Fed stimulus can keep this thing a float, but IMO it just looks like the S&P is fighting a losing battle. Bubble more or pop, only time will tell. I have been wrong more that right over the last few months as momentum markets are irrational by definition.
This is not trading advice. Hope it helps and good luck.
- Wave count from 1995 and from 2009 both synch together to hit their peaks during March.
- RSI and MACD are showing down slopes (divergence) just like all corrections in the past.
I am not saying there is not more upside. Right now the S&P has only hit a Fib extension of 1.4 instead of 1.6. Maybe good earnings from Apple, Google, and Amazon can push it the rest of the way. The tech sector has completely held up this market until now, so why not longer. It seems that many of those stock had not hit their 2.0 fib ext before the market crash in March. However, reality will set in at some point. Beating earnings estimates based on 50% loss from last year can only take this market so far. Maybe the massive Fed stimulus can keep this thing a float, but IMO it just looks like the S&P is fighting a losing battle. Bubble more or pop, only time will tell. I have been wrong more that right over the last few months as momentum markets are irrational by definition.
This is not trading advice. Hope it helps and good luck.
