SPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% SPX, 55% Cash.
*The FOMC announced a 50bps rate hike today and adjusted their Dot Plot to reflect a 5.1% FFR in 2023. Markets rallied prior to the announcement and then fell shortly after, though this could have been a short-squeeze, Equity and Crypto markets could see more downward pressure as investors return to Bonds; currently FFR futures traders are anticipating a 75bps rate hike on 02/01/23.
DXY, US Treasurys (mixed) and Natural Gas are up. US Equities, US Equity Futures, Cryptos, Commodities, GBPUSD, EURUSD, JPYUSD, CNYUSD, HSI, NI225, N100 and VIX are down.
Key Upcoming Dates: Next GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate 12/15; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23.*
Price is currently trending down at $3995 and is at risk of breaking below the uptrend line from 10/13 after being rejected by the 200MA at ~$4035 as resistance. Volume remains Moderate (high) and favored sellers for a second consecutive session; Price briefly touched the VP Point of Control at ~$3970. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3920, this margin is bearish at the moment. RSI is currently testing 52.68 as support after crossing above it to start the week. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing 43.62 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently at risk of denying a trough formation at 33.08 support; if it loses 33.08 support then the next support (minor) is at 10.73. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 16 as Price attempts to defend the uptrend line from 10/13, this is neutral at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here and reclaim support of the uptrend line from 10/13 at ~$4032 (which coincides with the 200MA), it will have to break above $4058 minor resistance in order to retest the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4150 as resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $3913 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $4058.
*The FOMC announced a 50bps rate hike today and adjusted their Dot Plot to reflect a 5.1% FFR in 2023. Markets rallied prior to the announcement and then fell shortly after, though this could have been a short-squeeze, Equity and Crypto markets could see more downward pressure as investors return to Bonds; currently FFR futures traders are anticipating a 75bps rate hike on 02/01/23.
DXY, US Treasurys (mixed) and Natural Gas are up. US Equities, US Equity Futures, Cryptos, Commodities, GBPUSD, EURUSD, JPYUSD, CNYUSD, HSI, NI225, N100 and VIX are down.
Key Upcoming Dates: Next GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate 12/15; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23.*
Price is currently trending down at $3995 and is at risk of breaking below the uptrend line from 10/13 after being rejected by the 200MA at ~$4035 as resistance. Volume remains Moderate (high) and favored sellers for a second consecutive session; Price briefly touched the VP Point of Control at ~$3970. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3920, this margin is bearish at the moment. RSI is currently testing 52.68 as support after crossing above it to start the week. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing 43.62 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently at risk of denying a trough formation at 33.08 support; if it loses 33.08 support then the next support (minor) is at 10.73. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 16 as Price attempts to defend the uptrend line from 10/13, this is neutral at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here and reclaim support of the uptrend line from 10/13 at ~$4032 (which coincides with the 200MA), it will have to break above $4058 minor resistance in order to retest the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4150 as resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $3913 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $4058.