Schnauzel
Short

SPX : election blues

TVC:SPX   S&P 500
75 2 2
2 months ago
Whether the first wave from the low is over or not, the second wave is coming soon and targeting one is always a throw of the die. A second wave can go anywhere from stopping in a preceding 4th to fully retrace the preceding movement. So here are the levels to watch :
  • 2123 to 2131 (preceding 4th)
  • 2115
  • 2106 (. 618 retracement )
  • 2083 (full retrace)
If one level is broken, the next becomes a magnet. Except the last one (full retrace), which invalidates the count if broken.

Three election outcomes could scrap all this wishful thinking : a Trump win, a democratic sweep, no clear winner. Anything else, we'll have a 2nd wave, followed by a third.

Happy trading
2 months ago
Comment: Is the 2nd wave over ?
snapshot
2 months ago
Comment: In terms of level, it achieved the minimum requirement, but the 1st wave lasted about 2 days and a half. So a mere 4 hours seems a little short for the completion of a complete counter move.
2 months ago
Trade closed: target reached
Schnauzel
2 months ago
''October 15th low, bottom of the 1st wave from the top'' should read October 13th.
Reply
Schnauzel
2 months ago
well... despite the Trump win, the count was not derailed. The second wave barely achieved its minimum requirement and briefly touch the preceding 4th wave area.
Note that the advance from that low could very well still be a B wave (part of an irregular flat structure) and not the start of the 3rd wave. A move below 2145 would confirm that possibility. Stay tune, and happy trading.
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