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dereckcoatney
Sep 5, 2020 3:54 PM

The Strong Long-Term Bearish Case Short

S&P 500 IndexTVC

Description

I'll be brief, but this removes all doubt, for me personally. I've been watching this develop for years.

It's a long-term weekly chart, so up months like July and August are irrelevant.

What does a market bottom look like? From the 2009 lows, we began making successively higher highs with greater and greater momentum, as indicated by the RSI. That is bullish. Anyone shorting at that point was doomed.

What we have been developing over the last few years in this broadening top is a series of successively higher highs with weakening momentum. And to make matters worse (and this is the key to the broadening formation), at each new low, you can see that it coincides with greater momentum, meaning we are to continue to expect even lower lows down the road.

Now, there will be some day in the future when we make a new low with less momentum and while that may not pinpoint the low, it will alert us to the fact that we are getting close.
Comments
ProfitHarvest
@dereckcoatney bringin the heat as usual! What a mic drop outta the blue lol.

We’re definitely at the top of the long term channel here...
dereckcoatney
@ProfitHarvest, This is interesting
ProfitHarvest
@dereckcoatney, here’s my latest prediction with that model...
xeng0yang
@dereckcoatney Awesome works, thanks dereck.
akatsiya
You disappeared for a while I have been waiting for your reports
dereckcoatney
@akatsiya, Sorry, just waiting and waiting for this damn thing to roll over :)
akatsiya
Derek you might be right
I hope you made money on recent market pull back
What long term means ? How long? When are you taking your short position ?
What do you think about short term ?
More stimulus is coming , big 5 g revolution starting Sept 8, fauci suggested that vaccine might be available oct or nov. Latest unemployment rates down, q2 earning reports that are mostly good
How do you see the situation fundamentally ?
dereckcoatney
@akatsiya, I think we could fall apart at any time. I wasn't expecting new all-time highs, but now that we're here, I can't expect even higher highs to come.
akatsiya
Do you see any good fundamentals ?
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