Here is out map of Primary wave 2 to this point. It is unclear if Minor 5 and Primary wave 2 are completed.
Now that Primary wave 2 retraced all of Primary wave 1's movement and then some, instead of limiting historical datasets to a ratioed range, I am comparing all similar micro waves where wave 2 moved more than wave 1. Elliott wave theory says wave 2 cannot move more than wave 1, my modified theory permits this when it occurs. Wave 1's movement / Wave 2's movement = 0.9957. I compared all data in which this ratio is less than 1 (Wave 2 was larger than wave 1) and the numbers look a little more realistic moving forward.
According to the data, Primary wave 3 should bottom above 3754 and less than 4036. The duration will likely last 608-740 trading hours. I still have other models with heavy agreement at a duration around 690-699 hours. Most models have the bottom between 3750-3799, which falls inline with the historical ratioed data. I will use the target of 3775 (drop 834.23 points from Friday's high) in 690 hours for estimating the Intermediate wave endpoints.
Preliminary bottom for Intermediate 1 is below 4350 before December 25. Intermediate wave 2 up toward 4500 by January 10. Intermediate wave 3 will be a significant drop over time, current look is 3900 by end of February. Intermediate wave 4 bounces up toward 4100 by mid-March. Current Primary wave 3 and Intermediate wave 5 bottom is around 3775 by early May.
Again this is all under the assumption Primary wave 2 is where we are, has completed, or will complete shortly after the open tomorrow. Primary wave 2 cannot realistically sustain too much more upside otherwise my wave placement is well off. More updates to follow.
@DaddySawbucks above 4637 tomorrow puts us back in cycle B with a top anywhere
DaddySawbucks
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@StonkSignaler, Likely ath by new year and 5k in Jan pure hopium, greed >>> fear, there is no fear... evry dip gets bought
StockSignaler
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@DaddySawbucks, reminds me of the high in 2007 after the low in 2002. We briefly went above the March 2000 high before giving it all back and then some. Figure this cycle 2022-2025 is a compressed version of 2000-2009. We are nearing that fakeout top where the folks hesitant on the sidelines are like "okay, its finally time to go long again," and that's when it crumbles.
DBAKIEV
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the top for (2) or (B) might be higher somewhere at 4820
StockSignaler
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@DBAKIEV, I am going to run that down tonight. This will put Cycle C bottom in early to mid 2025, which indicates something rough is coming in 2024