As seen on the chart 2.618x projection of wave 1 accurately set target for wave 3 around 1355. Market peaked slightly above that level.
1.618x projection of wave 3 gives target level 1680 for the last bull wave. I consider this target as extremely optimistic and set target area 1600-1650.
Find more on target setting method at http://www.capitalhubs.com/p/forecasting...
Let me know what your think, thanks!
The target level has been set by a model based on combination of Fibonacci ratios and Harmonic Elliot Wave counting applied for the previous two market cycles. The relations derived from past 20 years are applied for the projections.
As I see your chart is based on wave counting, there is no Fibonacci applied. That method is probably good for wave setting but for accurate wave level estimation Fibonacci ratios help a lot. And proved to be quite accurate.
Generally speaking based on the current statute of world economy and the outlook for bumpy road ahead even 1550 looks optimistic. Here I am sharing with you the analysis outcome based on previous two cycles pattern.
If I consider presidential cycle analysis suggestions then 1600-1650 should be never reached. That is most likely according to me, but as Algo kid said "Time will tell"
Can we go to 1600 ? who knows , this would represent a all time high for the SP 500. However , the 1550 area is an area of very strong resistance where the market basically tumbled into a bear market in 2001 and 2008. Can we push this market beyond those peaks ? Time will tell.
Thank for sharing this ! and nice blog btw :)