Based on the methodology mentioned in the previous two Market Prediction posts here I set target level for the recent bull market cycle.
As seen on the chart 2.618x projection of wave 1 accurately set target for wave 3 around 1355. Market peaked slightly above that level.
1.618x projection of wave 3 gives target level 1680 for the last bull wave. I consider this target as extremely optimistic and set target area 1600-1650.
i HERE A LOT OF INVESTOR AND TRADERS SAY THIS IS A MINOR SELL-OFF AND I WANT TO TELL ALL OF YOU THERE WRONG. THE MAJOR SELL OFF HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THE S&P 500 HAS ALREADY FORMED A PERFECT MONTHLY WOLFE WAVE PATTERN WHICH IS IN STAGE 5 EXTREME, WHILE MOMENTUM HAS ALREADY TURN DOWNWARD. THE MARKET WILL NOT ADVANCE SIGNIFICANTLY ANY FURTHER. THE DECLINE WILL DROP TO THE 700 TO 600 AREA. SO ANY ONE HOLDING STOCKS OR INDEXES FOR THE LONG HAUL ARE GOING TO LOOSE GREATLY. CHECK OUT THE WOLFE WAVE PATTERN.
CapitalHubs
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Update: Based on the already mentioned methodology and on the historical pattern of the previous two business cycles seems like the final (fifth) bull wave is close to its end. The target level 1680 (1.618x) has been surpassed as S&P is 1704.76 as per yesterday close. If we look at previous bull cycle 2002-2007 there is possibility for further growth but is is limited and accompanied with strong correction. Will the FED tapering be the trigger? We're about to see.
CapitalHubs
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Update: S&P is moving in line with my expectations and probably the target area could be reached. That is the 5th and last bull wave of the cycle.
ThisTejas
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OR if you prefer, since on the much grander scale, we're in a consolidation, I would say we're on wave D. If I'm not mistaken, D breaks down into 3 waves not 5. Where you have your wave 3 labeled on this chart, that can be wave A, where you have your wave 4, that can be B. We're currently working on wave C, which incidentally also breaks down into 5 waves. So either way, wave 5 or wave C, it breaks down into 5 waves, we've already gotten the first 4 and working on the last one now, so my chart should still apply. What do you guys think?
ThisTejas
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I agree with Algo Kid, I dont see SPX going past 1550. You see where you have marked your wave 4 (Oct 3, 2011); the formations after that date look to me like they've already formed waves 1-4 on a smaller wave count and we're in the middle of the 5th wave of your wave 5. If you'd like to see a further breakdown of this smaller wave 5 of 5, please see my chart here:
tradingview.com/v/8lLmF5Vs/
Let me know what your think, thanks!
CapitalHubs
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Thanks for your comment!
The target level has been set by a model based on combination of Fibonacci ratios and Harmonic Elliot Wave counting applied for the previous two market cycles. The relations derived from past 20 years are applied for the projections.
As I see your chart is based on wave counting, there is no Fibonacci applied. That method is probably good for wave setting but for accurate wave level estimation Fibonacci ratios help a lot. And proved to be quite accurate.
Generally speaking based on the current statute of world economy and the outlook for bumpy road ahead even 1550 looks optimistic. Here I am sharing with you the analysis outcome based on previous two cycles pattern.
If I consider presidential cycle analysis suggestions then 1600-1650 should be never reached. That is most likely according to me, but as Algo kid said "Time will tell"
tradingview.com/v/mIqv2QYY/
ThisTejas
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Hi, I actually do use fibs for my wave counts, but based on price only, I dont use fibs on time. I dont have an all-encompassing layout for my waves though, each wave uses a multitude of fibs, then I use the confluences as my targets. I just didnt want to put all of that on my chart as it was a mess already. I'm always up for learning something though, can you point me in the direction where I can read up on the method you use for fibs? Thanks!
thespocktrade
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Followed.
Algokid
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I think it would be a good idea if people left a reason for their disagreement with a chart, just to see your point of view.
Can we go to 1600 ? who knows , this would represent a all time high for the SP 500. However , the 1550 area is an area of very strong resistance where the market basically tumbled into a bear market in 2001 and 2008. Can we push this market beyond those peaks ? Time will tell.