The stock market moves in contrary way of expectation, often much further than one could imagine. November has seen the strongest upside gains since 1928.
Electric car maker Tesla,which in December joins the S+P500 , has risen over 500 % in 2020 The VIX last week fell 46 % to 20 in just one holiday shortened week,its largest percentage weekly decline ever.
CNN's Fear/Greed Index currently is at 92 %, meaning current expectations are in a lockstep rarified bullish,place,not often seen before. Mutual funds have seen billion dollar inflows in October and November,from retirees now looking to join "the party"
And whether anyone believes this or not,there are still those, I spoke to one yesterday, who believe Donald Trump won the election, but it was "stolen from him"because of a massive vote fraud of late democratic votes that appeared out of nowhere at the 11th hour to steal the election,believing in this supposed conspiracy theory without a single thread of collaborating evidence.
To me this is al of the above represent a complete and total delusion. A house of cards built on massive greed,and false expectations for the market.It will end badly, And yet bullish investors are not concerned about any of this and they are a vocal and angry bunch if you try to take the punch bowl from them.
So i"ll just put the question out there. Contrary opinion ? The potential greatest shorting opportunity of a lifetime ? I'll let you decide.Conspiracy has a very long shelf life in the markets, to get to the endgame.
But eventually, I do believe when one looks back on it in history, most see it for what it plainly was. A larger than lifetime stock market bubble,.. that was just waiting for someone to prick it,
I think Tesla proves that irrational exuberance makes people do really stupid things. Tesla now has a 1,137 PE ratio and I guarantee it still has 10-20% or so more to go. Bubbles are crazy like that. Everyone knows that it ridiculous, but FOMO is too hard to over come. Sitting around watching everyone else make money while you don't is a powerful emotion that makes investors do stupid things.
Here is a chart of the NASDAQ from an idea I posted last week. We always talk about the dot com bubble, but that bubble has nothing on the current market.
jedington
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@Dr_Roboto, As always, thanks for the chart insights.
tbuckle
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Trump believing he won't the election has nothing to do with what's going on in the stock market. Market seems to like the idea Biden will be President and Senate republican. And anyone who doesn't see how Trump being in the lead and then overnight virtually all the votes when to Biden - is just as delusional as Trump himself. Sleepy Joe got more a bigger black vote than Obama and the highest number votes of any president ever....ya I think not. There is substantial evidence of voter fraud and what many people are calling for is just a fair look at the evidence or lack there of. Stop watching CNN and look at some of the evidence and you'll at least have to say "well it's no smoking gun...but there is some smoke." I'm not saying it's enough to PROVE Biden didn't win, but often times many things in life are true that you can't prove on the spot. This is a bit of tangent but so is your throwing it into your call for a short of a lifetime. You've called this short stuff before and we've seen the market rip the shorts another ass with no lube. Having said that....ya I'd say it is likely the market has a big drop in the next 2 weeks.Just stick to the charts and facts and not political opinion.
Synrgy253
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@tbuckle LOL so emotional. You people love conspiracy theories.....HA HA HA HA
tbuckle
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@Synrgy253, No conspiracy....it's just a fact. Trump was up and leading well and then "counting stopped" and then statistically impossible percent of "still needed to count ballots" were almost all for Biden.
valentinoamoro
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@tbuckle, When you make enough money on the stock market, maybe you can upgrade from QAnon to Scientology.
@Synrgy253, As an outsider reading, you are the emotional one, while he explains his reasoning.
davidismyname
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@tbuckle, isn't it unnerving that Americans believe such different things based on the media they choose to consume? It pits us against each other as if "those people are delusional" and "you people love conspiracy theories." My wife and I ask ourselves, "Are we the ones being fooled by misinformation?" and conclude we aren't because of what we hear straight from peoples' mouths, court decisions, etc. But the other side would conclude the same thing. It's sad that we can't all agree on what can be considered reliable sources of information anymore.
tbuckle
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@davidismyname, Yes it's true. But I am not saying it is definitely one way or the other. I would like honest, thorough investigation and looking at the facts. If Biden won, he won, most people want the winner to be the winner regardless if we think they are bad/wrong/retarded/corrupt. But if there was cheating going on, "ballot box stuffing or harvesting of invalid ballots...or electronic hacking of the votes - we want to know that too.If there were tens of thousands of votes that came in with no signature or past the deadline or from dead people - we want to know. If there wasn't, we want to know. Is there enough evidence to warrant an investigation? We want to know. Last cycle great attention and coverage was giving to Russian bots helping to steal the election, and now that one side says actual ballots were tampered with everyone wants to cry tinfoil conspiracy theorists. You never heard the media call "conspiracy" on "Russian interference" in the election. Google, Twitter, etc. sensor information undeniably if it doesn't fit their narrative. America used to be - let the best arguments win. And you have most of the media leaning way way way to one side and a small fraction leaning to the other. It's not even news anymore just opinions on one side or the other. It used to be just reporting of the facts. Now it's all option mostly. Let the truth be investigated and come out. From Biden's own mouth he coerced Ukraine to fire a prosecutor who was investigating his son. Biden's son with no experience received MILLIONS of dollars to sit on a board in company dealing with China. Yet not of this matters according to the media. Yes, Trump acts like an ass. We all know this, but can we get to the truth.
Here is a chart of the NASDAQ from an idea I posted last week. We always talk about the dot com bubble, but that bubble has nothing on the current market.