For those who have been here since 2022 early 2023 when there was so much fear in the market and we called the market had bottomed. I think it was the right call, even though we had a lot of naysayers. Now I think we are nearing the end of this rally which I estimate will be sometime in February 2024. I have two outcomes the green line below which I highly favor and believe that is the path and the grey line which is definitely possible but unlike in my opinion due to election year. Also it looks like we are following the cup and handle. I have also explained in my other ideas why I think we are like in 1990 and 2012 (base on the fear). If the grey line happens, Biden loses the election guaranteed so I am certain the fed will hold the stock market at least until after the election.
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Looking at SPY (rather than SPX) seems we have started this.
Great charting. Out of many chartists , you standout with superb accuracy. I sent you 500coins few days back.
I see this should get to 5600 and then correct as you said.
Please chart NVDA as it's way way overbought.
BlackisKing
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@kkandru hey, I am just seeing this. Thank you for the kind words and I will look for it.
kkandru
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@BlackisKing, Forecast spot on. Now fun to watch if it's a 10% correction or deeper.
BlackisKing
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@kkandru, I looked at my NVDA chart and I had put a resistance at 1113 or so. Not sure why I put it there in the past so it looks like it could run a bit still IMO.
kkandru
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Do you take Yellen liquidity and FED QT Taper into account for lowering bond yields before the bearish call? What would be the catalyst for the bearish action.
May 8th is 10Year Treasury auction, I'm sure this goes well which should bring yields much lower and equities higher.
Unless investors are reluctant ( which I can think of parking their money market that pays 4%-5% interest with no risk ) about being in bonds with some risk similar yield, which is a billion dollar question and also making common sense , this's how market turns bearish for repricing equities and drops to 481 level initially and worse is to go to 430 level, this's when FED and Treasury cuts rates.
So May 8th , 1PM EDT is the key event for market direction.
BlackisKing
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@kkandru like I mentioned in the past, I look mostly at technicals.
kkandru
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Are you seeing the same pattern to unfold or a postponed correction to later.
Can't see or imagine that the S&P will come anywhere near these levels again, UNLESS there is another pandemic or the like, otherwise no chance. The odd drop here n there, but nothing below 4900, even that is too low.
I see this should get to 5600 and then correct as you said.
Please chart NVDA as it's way way overbought.