Morning Notes 06/26/19
Trading Environment-Short Term: Current Environment-Bearish
Hi Everyone,
Futures are up some this morning, but well off the "We were almost there" comments from Mnuchin, that sent the futures into a buying frenzy. That is just outright stupidity and shows us how these algos are programmed when the programmers are sleeping. China-90% there=buy buy buy. Honestly, that is like a college kid flunking out of school, but saying he got a 90 on one of his tests. Who cares where you were, where are you now?
Anywho, I showed you in last night's video that the fractal pattern was looking for a spike up to test the highs. Maybe that still happens, maybe it doesn't. What comes next is important, if it is going to follow the pattern from May. We should see a hard drop once that bounce is completed, if they decide to try and test the highs. I also mentioned in yesterday's morning notes that tops have not formed like the pattern in place-where there is no divergences on the NYAD. I still THINK that may hold true, but as I also mentioned, it may not come until we see a decent size drop to test the 2727 lows.
The /ES stopped dead in its tracks right at the hourly 50-dma, which is suggesting the bears may be ready to fight. If they lose that resistance line, then I think we will get the test of 2950-2955. I am open minded today on direction, as down or up makes sense. 2800 is still my downside target for now and if the bears can get a little viral action going and get below 2800, then I think the 2750 gap will get filled. 2910 on the spx is important for the bears to push through now.
Today range for the spx 2926 high and 2910 low. A break of 2926 the SPX should try for the spx should try for 2932/2941. A push below 2910 we could see 2897/2883. G-
SPX CASH 60 minute technicals
Stochastics: Overbought
Divergences- Bearish Divergences
Resistance Levels: R1-2926 R2-2932 R3 2941
Support Levels: S1-2910 S2-2897 S3 2883
Trending Pivots: Lower
Can The Stock Market Be Predicted? Below are a series of predictions we made from September. Take a look and you will see, yes they can and nobody does it better than Woody Dorsey!
February 14, 2019:
Nominal tactical weakness has been due into 2/22. Now, to reiterate, “nominal tactical weakness” is not a “Sell” signal. It is just the timing profile. Again, as noted: “The Interim profile is still Bullish .” The December Low was excessive, and the rebound is becoming excessive too. If a corrective range is forming, another or, several 2-3 day declines may occur over the next two weeks. Now, the next nominal trading high is due near 4/10ish. That does not mean stocks are just going higher from here to there by any means. It makes the most tactical sense for stocks to correct or to become congested for a while. • Near Term Diagnosis: Sentiment is 83% Bullish today following a relatively rare 97% bullish yesterday. These are clearly cautionary. • Interim Term Diagnosis: The Interim Trend still allows for recovery rallies, by fits and starts, into at least early April or perhaps even into June.
10/16/18 Sentiment Timing Report: MARKET TIMING: A tactical trading low was ideally due last week and came in on 10/11 synchronous with the 0% Bullish . This week is messy with an upside bias due next week. Given the expansion of the range, it may all amount to not very much: “I still foresee a notable relief rally in November. That may be followed by more weakness than anyone expects into year end.” The code is for a nominal Recovery near 10/26 and, post-Election, engineer a decent upside episode into Thanksgiving followed by perhaps surprisingly robust downside in December. These codes may morph and become more, or less defined, so be aware of that. These are tricky times and “loco” maneuvers can occur.
Comment: 09/13/18 Sentiment Timing Report: MARKET TIMING: A failure was expected in August. The expected correction is profiled to last into near 9/25ish but, “This Fall may see trading opportunities both ways.” How the market behaves into 9/25ish there will tell us all a great deal about the larger context. So far from the 8/29 High, there were 7 days down which have been followed by 5 days up. While it feels like the market is strong it really has been in a sideways price/time pattern. What fits best now is for another 6-8 day decline which would make it a somewhat symmetrical compound correction into the preferred low date. Under that pattern, today would be the last upside day.
Trading Environment-Short Term: Current Environment-Bearish
Hi Everyone,
Futures are up some this morning, but well off the "We were almost there" comments from Mnuchin, that sent the futures into a buying frenzy. That is just outright stupidity and shows us how these algos are programmed when the programmers are sleeping. China-90% there=buy buy buy. Honestly, that is like a college kid flunking out of school, but saying he got a 90 on one of his tests. Who cares where you were, where are you now?
Anywho, I showed you in last night's video that the fractal pattern was looking for a spike up to test the highs. Maybe that still happens, maybe it doesn't. What comes next is important, if it is going to follow the pattern from May. We should see a hard drop once that bounce is completed, if they decide to try and test the highs. I also mentioned in yesterday's morning notes that tops have not formed like the pattern in place-where there is no divergences on the NYAD. I still THINK that may hold true, but as I also mentioned, it may not come until we see a decent size drop to test the 2727 lows.
The /ES stopped dead in its tracks right at the hourly 50-dma, which is suggesting the bears may be ready to fight. If they lose that resistance line, then I think we will get the test of 2950-2955. I am open minded today on direction, as down or up makes sense. 2800 is still my downside target for now and if the bears can get a little viral action going and get below 2800, then I think the 2750 gap will get filled. 2910 on the spx is important for the bears to push through now.
Today range for the spx 2926 high and 2910 low. A break of 2926 the SPX should try for the spx should try for 2932/2941. A push below 2910 we could see 2897/2883. G-
SPX CASH 60 minute technicals
Stochastics: Overbought
Divergences- Bearish Divergences
Resistance Levels: R1-2926 R2-2932 R3 2941
Support Levels: S1-2910 S2-2897 S3 2883
Trending Pivots: Lower
Can The Stock Market Be Predicted? Below are a series of predictions we made from September. Take a look and you will see, yes they can and nobody does it better than Woody Dorsey!
February 14, 2019:
Nominal tactical weakness has been due into 2/22. Now, to reiterate, “nominal tactical weakness” is not a “Sell” signal. It is just the timing profile. Again, as noted: “The Interim profile is still Bullish .” The December Low was excessive, and the rebound is becoming excessive too. If a corrective range is forming, another or, several 2-3 day declines may occur over the next two weeks. Now, the next nominal trading high is due near 4/10ish. That does not mean stocks are just going higher from here to there by any means. It makes the most tactical sense for stocks to correct or to become congested for a while. • Near Term Diagnosis: Sentiment is 83% Bullish today following a relatively rare 97% bullish yesterday. These are clearly cautionary. • Interim Term Diagnosis: The Interim Trend still allows for recovery rallies, by fits and starts, into at least early April or perhaps even into June.
10/16/18 Sentiment Timing Report: MARKET TIMING: A tactical trading low was ideally due last week and came in on 10/11 synchronous with the 0% Bullish . This week is messy with an upside bias due next week. Given the expansion of the range, it may all amount to not very much: “I still foresee a notable relief rally in November. That may be followed by more weakness than anyone expects into year end.” The code is for a nominal Recovery near 10/26 and, post-Election, engineer a decent upside episode into Thanksgiving followed by perhaps surprisingly robust downside in December. These codes may morph and become more, or less defined, so be aware of that. These are tricky times and “loco” maneuvers can occur.
Comment: 09/13/18 Sentiment Timing Report: MARKET TIMING: A failure was expected in August. The expected correction is profiled to last into near 9/25ish but, “This Fall may see trading opportunities both ways.” How the market behaves into 9/25ish there will tell us all a great deal about the larger context. So far from the 8/29 High, there were 7 days down which have been followed by 5 days up. While it feels like the market is strong it really has been in a sideways price/time pattern. What fits best now is for another 6-8 day decline which would make it a somewhat symmetrical compound correction into the preferred low date. Under that pattern, today would be the last upside day.
