A little messy chart.... I know... sorry but have to have all arguements in one chart. I'm to neutral but chosen "bearish sentiment" as indicator for this chart.
What are the arguments for having a sentiment?
There is a wave 4 into wave 1 violation..... and therefore we could see a flat? But must then be a truncated 5th wave.
Three tops are in place and it has been a month in making.
We have a downtrend on daily - 2 lower highs and 3 lower lows. Very close together - yes - but it's there a confirm a fragile downtrend!
There is a backtest of the broken (in Purple).
Tapering should mean bearishness for market - The pusher is taken the normal amount of drug away from the addict and the end is now in sight. This should at the same time be for the US- dollar.
I don't see a new risk on willingness with only 3 full trading days back - volumen will be fading. We are almost at ATH . Santa came down the chimney tonight riding on QE-Rudolf..... left again before being caught I'd say. Rudolf being reduced in strength. Remember... market is looking ahead and able to see the end. Can't find optimism when the end of is now in sight. Next could be a rate hike.
The SP500 and leverage is higher here at the stimuli bubble then back at the dot.com- and subprime bubble: http://gyazo.com/3a703899c6c34bed3e8f49a357f6b7a6
All we need now for risk aversion is a panic situation to push market over the edge. The currency trades have already been setting up.
I have bought shorts already.
I'm not all in - but my first pair of german lederhosen is on ;)
I know... there could be a follow through tomorrow and all this could be in vain.... but the possibility is there.... right now
still above 50 but in a downtrend... on weekly and especially on the monthly chart (see below).
A tomorrow and .... hibernation for the bears could be over.
Time will show.... as always!
Safe trading gents!
Music at work: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRy_aAYCyTw
Remember to turn on subwoffer :)