If you look at S&P 500 in a longer term, it looks scary. It has formed a 1 to 1 ABCD since 1980 area. The time is not perfectly 1 to 1, but the magnitude is.
If it really works, the 1st target of 38.2% is just below the 2007 peak. watch out for this index. it could be the bonus trade for this year!