In my opinion and analysis, the SPX will likely go higher in the coming days off of artificial optimism from the OPEC deal. While the equity market lately has found some sort of normalcy (we haven't seen anymore 10%+ declines), this is only short-term for what will likely be the next leg down to new lows sometime mid to late April and through the first half of May.
I would not be surprised if the market has a fairly decent week this week. While the OPEC meeting seems to be delayed (unless something changes) it is likely that they will meet sometime this week and provide the market with some type of crude production cut. This will allow crude to close the $38-42 gap before falling again to new lows beginning a few weeks thereafter.
While this is mostly artificial hope, the reality is the market is irrational - not rational - so people have to realize that its not about what "should" happen, but rather, what is "likely" to happen.
Traders should not be surprised if the market has a pretty decent week this week, however, DO NOT fall for it and enter longs. This will be used as short accumulation. Swing trading is the only thing advise here.
Remember: Elevated crude prices supports the equity market; therefore in the time crude closes the aforementioned gap, this will result in equities likely going higher. Although this won't last longer than a week, it is likely to happen as I state here.
Elliot Wave - Important Note
- A lot of people on here are trying to predict the timing of Wave 5 down to new lows. While this will eventually bring about new lows, the reality is we have NOT had confirmation on timing. EW theory is retroactive, not proactive. Therefore, we must have a confirmation we are IN Wave 5 BEFORE we can say that we are in Wave 5
- The market has NOT given us a confirmation of Wave 5 yet but I suspect we will get confirmation sometime just after Easter
Though I think we have to go to june-july for the next bottom. Or even august.
The first wave is just the panic. But once all the shitty numbers will come out, all the money printing wont help because people dont have money, and then people cant buy into the economy. And by people, I mean those 10% that lose/lost their jobs. And those 10% with drag down everything else like a domino train.