zSplit
Long

SPX: Likely to Go Higher This Week; Don't Fall for it Though!

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Hello traders,

In my opinion and analysis, the SPX will likely go higher in the coming days off of artificial optimism from the OPEC deal. While the equity market lately has found some sort of normalcy (we haven't seen anymore 10%+ declines), this is only short-term for what will likely be the next leg down to new lows sometime mid to late April and through the first half of May.

I would not be surprised if the market has a fairly decent week this week. While the OPEC meeting seems to be delayed (unless something changes) it is likely that they will meet sometime this week and provide the market with some type of crude production cut. This will allow crude to close the $38-42 gap before falling again to new lows beginning a few weeks thereafter.

While this is mostly artificial hope, the reality is the market is irrational - not rational - so people have to realize that its not about what "should" happen, but rather, what is "likely" to happen.

Traders should not be surprised if the market has a pretty decent week this week, however, DO NOT fall for it and enter longs. This will be used as short accumulation. Swing trading is the only thing advise here.

Remember: Elevated crude prices supports the equity market; therefore in the time crude closes the aforementioned gap, this will result in equities likely going higher. Although this won't last longer than a week, it is likely to happen as I state here.

*****

Elliot Wave - Important Note
- A lot of people on here are trying to predict the timing of Wave 5 down to new lows. While this will eventually bring about new lows, the reality is we have NOT had confirmation on timing. EW theory is retroactive, not proactive. Therefore, we must have a confirmation we are IN Wave 5 BEFORE we can say that we are in Wave 5
- The market has NOT given us a confirmation of Wave 5 yet but I suspect we will get confirmation sometime just after Easter

*****

- zSplit

Comments

Thanks for your updates, really helps a lot. Any thoughts on the potential new economic stimulus package together with the seemingly stabilizing infection cases globally and their impact on your analysis?
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I think it may go as high as 2833 - 2866 before descending.
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I think it could pass 2791
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Thoughts on the opening this morning?!?!
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Im thinking the same. Posted something similar on "OSEBX" oslo exchange.

Though I think we have to go to june-july for the next bottom. Or even august.

The first wave is just the panic. But once all the shitty numbers will come out, all the money printing wont help because people dont have money, and then people cant buy into the economy. And by people, I mean those 10% that lose/lost their jobs. And those 10% with drag down everything else like a domino train.
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Thank you @zSplit
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Well done - impressive! Since SPY broke 264 (albeit weakly), do you think it will almost surely test 279? I'm wondering how likely it is that we get a major drop tomorrow.
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Could have the Feds changed rules and started QE 4? A melt-up into the Fall? maybe I have to follow instinct on what oil does next to catch the last bottom for a double bottom or new lows ahead.
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zSplit ppstudent
@ppstudent, We've been in perpetual QE for the past 10 years, lol.
+4 Reply
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