The SPX was up 9.38% on 3/24 on the expectation that Senate will pass ~2T stimulus bill soon. Any market should rise when approximalty 10% of the countries GDP will be infused into the economy. Unfortunately, my current thesis suggests that ~2T won't be enough, and it may take multiples of this to slow the economic collapse.
Technically, there are two retracement points that look good for an entry to the next leg down. The first at $2,490 (+1.7%) and the second at $2,565 (+4.8%). I believe this techical set up with the upcoming fundamentals will play out very well to the downside. Caution: if SPX rises above $2,616 then I would call this opportunity invalid.
My expectation is that one or both of the technical points will be completed before April 3rd. To be very specific I am currnetly thinking they will reach one or both of the targets before the market opens on the 26th of March which is when the US unemployment claims data comes out, which I believe will be a startling number, one for the ages (or the following week). On April 1st we will see the ISM manufacutring index which should print one of the lowest of all time, maybe ever... until April reports. This will present a stark relization to the market and the country that COVID-19 is much more of a problem then the Gov't is currently stating.
I don't believe Trump's quote from today's Fox interview where he stated "I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter,". I believe it will be quite the opposite. If I am wrong and the US isn't shut down like China or Italy by April 12th then GOD help us as it will only get worse.
Stay Safe...
just_a_guy
Disclaimer: The opinions and ideas presented by just_a_guy are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to represent trading or investment advice.
What are the two barriers you suggested ($2,490 (+1.7%) and the second at $2,565) connected to in the chart's history?
just_a_guy
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@gold2green, trend lines colored in black on the chart that go back to the lows in 2009. You can zoom out to seem them.
CriticalAlert
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Goldman Sach's economists predict a Q2 drop in GDP of 24%. The worst GDP drop in American history was 12.9% in 1932 (the great depression).
With exponentially rising infections, global economies are already impacted or will be SEVERELY impacted in Q2 when infections start to peak in the millions per country. Late July the value investors that refuse to sell unless the hard data slaps them in the face will reach a hard realization when Q2 earnings are disclosed.
China"s lock-down was different and gave a false sense of hope to the countries after them.
I'm betting the bottom of the market is actually 6-20 months away. Always diversify your positions.
Brace for impact gentleman!
just_a_guy
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@CriticalAlert, Couldn't agree more, China lock-down gave a "false sense of hope to the countries"....
Watch the US Unemployment cliams data this week. Speculators suggest numbers greater that +7M, economy grinding to a halt.
Altcoinsmart
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6T now
amikaking
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👍🏽
Altcoinsmart
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Spot on! Agreed! Today was just bunch of short sellers taking profit and Algo trading. I think we haven't bottomed yet. Will love to see some great downside from Thursday