In this monthly analysis, I've determined the EW pivots based on the way I use the channelling technique.
Observations: a) In terms of price, Primary wave 5 (green) = Primary wave 1 = 0.382 x Primary wave 1 to 3. b) In terms of time, Primary wave 5 = Primary wave 1.
In terms of time, the target is March 2017, exactly 8 years after the bottom of the 2008's crash... (8 is a Fibonacci number...)
Scary confluences!
If the current Primary wave 5 confirms to be an ending diagonal, it seems to fit well both price and time targets, and would then complete Cycle wave V (black) and the corresponding Supercycle wave (I).
And if so, the subsequent correction would take us to the end of the fourth wave of one lesser degree, meaning the end of Cycle wave IV (black), which is at 666... and to accomplish that, another Fibonacci number, 5 years.
Nice analysis. I can also see one final move up to complete wave 5 and will be looking for full on Euphoria from the media/public. That might give a signal that the top is near.
mikeoakster
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Hi @BhaktaBasics, that Euphoria could come in the form of the throw-over typical of the fifth wave of an ending diagonal...
BhaktaBasics
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@mikeoakster, What do you mean by 'throw-over'. I'm a beginner when it comes to EW and whilst familiar with ending diagonals, i'm not clear there was a typical throw-over?
@mikeoakster, I see, thanks for that. Another thing that confuses me is how this 5th wave ending diagonal sits with the overall structure.
The main structure points towards a 5th wave completion of ~2500 whereas the ending diagonal is pointing towards a completion around ~2275. I'm guessing there is a rule in EW where an ending diagonal can cut short a 5th wave (especially when the 3rd wave was extended to such a large degree)?!?
kunsan
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@BhaktaBasics, this ED might be larger and longer. For instance the high at 2200 can be wave 'a' and the low at 2100 wave 'b' of an abcde rising wedge. Note that the inverted head and shoulders at 3,4 has an upside target of 2420.
BhaktaBasics
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@kunsan, Thanks for the feedback, much appreciated! Are you suggesting that we could still be in the 3rd wave consisting of an abcde rising wedge? - In which case we could now be heading down in the D leg, before the final E leg up completes 3rd wave? Any chance you can add your count on a chart i.e. abcde rising wedge so it's easier to see?
That's the tricky part of EW, as it seems you can apply so many different counts.
kunsan
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@BhaktaBasics, what I'm trying to say is that the rising wedge 5th wave idea is very likely correct but that the wedge will likely be larger and longer. I usually label the waves inside a wedge as waves a,b,c,d,e with each one getting smaller. Notice that your lower trendline doesn't hit the low at 2000 but it does hit the low at 2100. Quite possibly the entire rise from 1810 to 2200 was in fact the first wave 'a' of a wedge, and the drop to 2100 was possibly wave 'b'. Now we are rising in all or part of 'c' with 'd' and 'e' yet to come. I'm expecting the current rise to get to 2317 - that might be completion of wave 'c' or it might just be the first part of wave 'c'. There's a quandary you've rightly pointed out that if this is a 5th wave it will likely reach the 2400/2500 area so the structure of the wedge needs to be able to get to that target area.