Topping process setting for a larger bear market. A second wave of selling to form a larger bear market, followed by a second recession. I believe the S&P 500 will make a new high after the breakout of the bullish falling wedge. This looks very similar to the topping process in Jan and Feb earlier this year.
Investors' expectations in the aftermath of the pandemic are way too high. The stock market will likely have another wave (a 2nd wave) of selling once it makes a new high above the Sept 2nd peak and moves above 3600 to form a topping process that should usher in the next longer term bear market. My target is 3650 to 3675 over the next 3 to 4 weeks. A larger structural bear market is likely forming, with tends to be longer in duration. The next wave of selling will be prompted by the B.I.G.s The Big Institutional Guns and the wealthy. They should sell into the rally and that will create a topping process.
The economic fallout from the pandemic will carry over into 2021. The postponement of foreclosures, bankruptcies, and evictions will occur in 2021. Researchers are saying that evictions are expected to be in the millions. Foreclosures will put pressure on the housing market as lenders will likely increase lending restrictions. The housing market and the stock market tend to move in tandem.
Obviously not going to happen, no event will cause a market crash. Except if an asteroid hits US.
MoneybagsMcGee
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@sparrow_hawk_737, anyone with a brain can see that a crash is coming sooner or later in the months to come for the very reasons he mentioned. sure, it could be stopped by more bailouts and backstops, but that will only do harm to the dollar, whichll be equally as destructive as bagholders liquidating their assets. either way, one or the other; the dollar, or the stock market is going to have violent moves as the economic fallout sets in. you're right about this dude being painfull wrong, but that's just what happens when you are a permabear/permabull - you're extremely right every once in a blue moon but sorely wrong 99% of the time.
sparrow_hawk_737
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@MoneybagsMcGee, I strongly disagree with you ... this market is too manipulated. The time for the "BIG CRASH" is not going to come until the debt gets out of control. Maybe 10-15 years.
MoneybagsMcGee
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@sparrow_hawk_737, well i can definitely see that happening, but simultaneously to this bubble just being inflated to ridiculous measures, there'll be a huge decrease in the standard of living in the US. the real estate bubble, alone, will have to be given endless forgiveness and bought out by the fed so that there is no possibility for the bubble to pop lol. like there's no conceivable way you can spin this narrative that it'll go on for 10+ years without the fed taking a major step to acquire private debt so it all just doesn't default. there's too many people out there who just can't pay, will not be able to pay, and won't pay for there to no be major reprcussions. the multi-billion dollar commercial real estate bubble is enough to send the market into a tizzy.
need i remind you, the airline industry might get a 2nd huge bailout within one year lol
The_Chart_Pattern_Trader
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Some people in this world are way too negative and judgmental. This guy doesn't follow my work on a regular basis. I don't think I'm going to post here anymore. I don't like dealing with haters that spread their hate and negativity to others. People like this don't follow my complete work on a daily basis to know that I am a very successful trader. It is negative hateful attacks like this that cause people to be reluctant to share on tradingview. It really is a shame that hateful and negative comments like this are tolerated here. Unfortunately, some people like to spread their hate in vicious attacks. I am so glad I'm not a hater.