Market followers know that October is the month where several historic drops have occurred. Will this year produce another chapter in market lore?
If you've been following along you likely know my expectations. If you haven't, then take a look at earlier charts where I wasn't bashful about expecting a market decline ("abc") at late 2017 - early 2018 with full expectation that new highs would follow (wave 5). I'm not ready to call "game over" on wave 5 and don't think October 2018 will produce a substantial decline.
As we enter October we start at a significant milestone (2914). That level is highlighted by several Fibonacci extensions at various degrees. It should be fully expected to prove stubborn (again) before wave 5 eventually ends. We first arrived at 2914 in late August 2018 and have moved around it since then. A stumble lower early in October will allow positioning for any rise above 2914-18. If not, any break above that level should begin the process of reaching higher Fibonacci extension targets above 3000, but not in a linear fashion (reminder).
A few factors in the near term may provide fortunate opportunity for re-test of last week's low (2903), or even slightly lower. Mutual Funds square their positions for income/distributions by booking gains/losses, primarily in early October. Other economic factors provide further backdrop (EU/Italy spending vs GDP, U.S. Geo-political issues, Sept unemployment/wages on Friday). I don't factor any of those into expected market direction, but do look for opportunity created by their headlines and related stories.
I'm expecting an eventful Q4/2018. I have closely focused on how wave 5's end is likely to occur and started formulating expectations for what follows. For now, tranquility is provided by the governing upward trend of wave 5.
If you've been following along you likely know my expectations. If you haven't, then take a look at earlier charts where I wasn't bashful about expecting a market decline ("abc") at late 2017 - early 2018 with full expectation that new highs would follow (wave 5). I'm not ready to call "game over" on wave 5 and don't think October 2018 will produce a substantial decline.
As we enter October we start at a significant milestone (2914). That level is highlighted by several Fibonacci extensions at various degrees. It should be fully expected to prove stubborn (again) before wave 5 eventually ends. We first arrived at 2914 in late August 2018 and have moved around it since then. A stumble lower early in October will allow positioning for any rise above 2914-18. If not, any break above that level should begin the process of reaching higher Fibonacci extension targets above 3000, but not in a linear fashion (reminder).
A few factors in the near term may provide fortunate opportunity for re-test of last week's low (2903), or even slightly lower. Mutual Funds square their positions for income/distributions by booking gains/losses, primarily in early October. Other economic factors provide further backdrop (EU/Italy spending vs GDP, U.S. Geo-political issues, Sept unemployment/wages on Friday). I don't factor any of those into expected market direction, but do look for opportunity created by their headlines and related stories.
I'm expecting an eventful Q4/2018. I have closely focused on how wave 5's end is likely to occur and started formulating expectations for what follows. For now, tranquility is provided by the governing upward trend of wave 5.