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DaddySawbucks
Nov 12, 2020 8:41 PM

Sand P Fakeout or Breakout?! 

S&P 500 IndexTVC

Description

Gonna backtest the TL; if it holds, bears will be disappointed again. If it breaks back under TL, gonna confirm triple top.

Alternate path shown goes down to close gap at 3400 and bounce. Just a guess, this is not advice!

I posted this as Neutral as it can break either way now. Trade with great caution, ANYTHING is possible here, GLTA!

Comment

RSI not yet overbought and the pattern resembles 11 Aug; IMO shorting before RSI peaks is suicidal.

Comment

NB: Down volume on 11/12 was half the volume of 11/9

Comment

Yeah... thar she blows! Shorting is NOT recommended IMHO! DJI >>>30K!

Comment

It has made a triple top on the third peak of the triple top... the zig-zag pattern with double cup correction looks exactly as it appeared in 2007 just before rollover. It is in overbought condition but can stay that was for several days. If you want to 'call the top' you probably want to go with a 2- or 3-week contract at least. More than a month gets real expensive. Weeklies and dailies have been suicidal.. I shorted a $1 daily on Friday last and covered it for 0.01c on Monday...!
Comments
ProfitHarvest
Yea it's a tough read right now!

Downside still seems more likely than upside though...
DaddySawbucks
@ProfitHarvest, Agree, however after getting my ass spanked on MOnday for 1500 DJI pips I reckon anything can happen, again!
ProfitHarvest
@DaddySawbucks, A little ass spanking now and again is good for the soul B).

RSI is already downtrending in my view after having just deflected off the top of the 2Y Down Channel (orange) and 1Y Peak Downtrend (blue). We just broke under a local S/R (dotted) and are exactly on the 3M Peak Downtrend (yellow). That's why tomorrow or Monday is DO or DIE. If we break cleanly under the 3M then we're probably looking to hit bottom of 2Y Down Channel... if we bounce here though we may just break up out of the channel or possibly crash and burn against that orange line within a week.
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