This year S&P500 will be going nowhere as it will be traded within a range of around 3400-4000 and probably will end around 3200-3800 by the end of the year. It may test lower point and may touch higher point than the given range, however it won't crash and won't spike either. The reasons for these analysis is based on Index Value Rainbow indicator above. This indicator shows multiple value of base Money Supply or Net Liquidity. For US market Net Liquidity formula is as follow:
NL = FBS - (TGA + RRP)
NL = Net Liquidity
FBS = Fed Balance Sheet
TGA = Treasury General Account
RRP = Reverse Repo
What happened this year is the Fed is reducing it's balance sheet by selling of their asset or doing some quantitative tightening program, which basically reduce the net liquidity value. However on the other side Treasury is also reducing it general account due to debt limit issue, which actually increasing the net liquidity. So the net value of these two opposing factors will impact S&P500 value. As a result the net liquidity will remain the same or slightly down through out the year, as the Fed has more impact than Treasury. As the result, S&P500 will be traded within a limited range. So best strategy used for this situation is swing trading strategy. Where you can buy at the bottom of the range and sell at top of the range.
NL = FBS - (TGA + RRP)
NL = Net Liquidity
FBS = Fed Balance Sheet
TGA = Treasury General Account
RRP = Reverse Repo
What happened this year is the Fed is reducing it's balance sheet by selling of their asset or doing some quantitative tightening program, which basically reduce the net liquidity value. However on the other side Treasury is also reducing it general account due to debt limit issue, which actually increasing the net liquidity. So the net value of these two opposing factors will impact S&P500 value. As a result the net liquidity will remain the same or slightly down through out the year, as the Fed has more impact than Treasury. As the result, S&P500 will be traded within a limited range. So best strategy used for this situation is swing trading strategy. Where you can buy at the bottom of the range and sell at top of the range.
