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The_Unwind
Aug 3, 2019 6:44 PM

Additional Musings The Trap Has Been Sprung Short

S&P 500 IndexTVC

Description

Daily Candlestick Chart of the S+P
shows a RED BAR Continuation Daily Decline entering into the prior wedge triangle pattern,
thus confirming a false upside breakout above 3000 to an historic all time high.

Think about that thought for a moment.

The all time high in the S+P 500 at 3027.88 has been technically invalidated,
with this weeks sharp price breakdown
and the only thing to save it would be a new all time high, above the prior high.

The consequences of such a rollover become more significant
if you wish to ponder the downside potential risk it now raises in the market.

Put pure and simple, a trap has been sprung on unwitting bulls
whose only sin it appears was to walk right into it, ..
....without a care in the world.

THE_UNWIND
8/3/19
NEW YORK





Comments
ehyohyo
Thanks for your great posting.
I have been watching your posts for a quite time and I was there too when you were confused with extraordinary ATH a few days ago

I am personally pondering where would be a end of this beginning of downtrend.

Cheers
The_Unwind
@ehyohyo,

Thanks for your kind words.

If last weeks low at 2914 is taken out,
you can almost count on a new move down, perhaps a sharp one.

Major Pattern Resistance appears to be above 3000, around 3013 right now.
If price were to stay down below 2970 this week, then a new resistance ceiling could be formed..
Adeelharoon
@The_Unwind, sir what abt nasdaq
The_Unwind
@Adeelharoon,

Ndx is stronger reletive strength wise.
Means itis the one that should hold up the best.
Tech stocks thrive with lower rate environment.
Just know your important support numbers/using appropriate stops
tbuckle
....or its just testing the break out area and forming a "false break down" of that area for a bear trap to take her back up and higher.... : )
The_Unwind
@tbuckle,

That is possible as well, (one must allow the market to decide as always)
A potential retest of the breakout area could slightly exceed its point of origin,
and then rally sharply back up.
My own belief here is that is a lower probability event possibility until proven otherwise.
tbuckle
@The_Unwind, Fair enough.
tbuckle
@The_Unwind, My experience and observations of patterns would think a bunch of up and down around that break out point some above like it is finding support on it and some below looking like it is breaking down...and then ultimately retaking it and going higher.
LTSInvestor
So, would you take a position in an inverse ETF on Monday such as SQQQ or SPXS?
The_Unwind
@LTSInvestor,

I actually trade,and chart both SPXS and SQQQ
I would wait for some kind of rip roaring rally to enter new short position
SPXS would enter at 18.00, from Fridays Cl of 18.51
or more importantly a break of Fridays low of SPX 2914.11
Disclaimer : This is Not trading advise
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