The chart is simple:
Black lines show clear divergence. On the first occasion SPX lost about 54% of its gains and over a decades worth of gains. We are in the second occurrence of divergence and the measured move shows the losses to SPX if the low of this downtrend finds support on the resistance set by the blue lines/double top. For your own edification I strictly charge and direct you to look at the S&P and find the times that it has erased over 10 years of gains on a massive dip.
The blue lines in price and a massive amount of divergence in the lead to over 55% drop. The first set of black lines show how classic divergence built up over years and finally broke to almost a 53% drop. The second set also shows divergence but rather than building up it shows two clear peaks. The measured move to the previous is about 43%.
The shows that the uptrend is slowing down, evidenced by the light green bar on the histogram. By itself that is a minor signal that the uptrend is slowing down, but combined with the divergence suggest the will likewise begin to turn down. The Hull is a much more volatile moving average convergence/divergence oscillator which crosses zero a lot more than the and the fast acting nature can lead to a lot of false signals, especially on lower timeframes. But at the current instance I think we can at least predict a red year based of the Hull having a declining histogram and the H-MACD itself turning down.
Target setting is going to be difficult for a move of this size. The Moving Averages show at severe times that the yearly 20MA is important, and from time to time in the ancient days (the 20s and 30) the 50 has come into play. I think a retracement to the 20 year MA is very possible as it matches the established between the ‘99 and ’07. I also consider it possible that many people will watch In horror as the S&P forms a complex after finding support on the 50 year MA, bouncing, and finding support on the 100 year MA. I would be greatly pleased to be updating this same post in 30 years.
But lets not get ahead of ourselves. For you micro-timeframe traders we see that on the 15m the price action doesn’t look good for bulls. The 20MA just crossed under the 50 and shortly I see a cross of the 50 and the 200. I quite frankly I don’t see anyway we don’t get rejected below the 2800 level. Too many rejections at 2,800.
Finally on the TA aspect, the declining on the yearly time frame isn't a good sign. Less means less interest in keeping the price up. If you look at the VPVR your best hope is the 2200 level holds, and quite frankly, i don't think it will.
Fundamentally, QT has continued at a steady pace, both by the FED and by the BOJ and the ECB, and I don’t think the markets have fully adjusted to the conditions. By fits and starts the markets will adjust to the decrease in money supply and even if the Fed holds interest rates flat while continuing QT is still fundamentally . The dollar will continue to become relatively more expensive compared to equities which will lead to paper gains.
I'mma hold my position in SPXU (a inverse x3 SPX fund) for at least a year.
There is nothing to suggest that QT will lead to a weakening dollar.