Based on EW analysis and most statistical fib ratios combined with existing supports. Wave 4 should be a double zig zag as wave 2 was a flat. ABC-X-ABC or 2 downward impulses, this is the real question.
A few weeks left...
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Bullish scenario has been potentially invalidated by a wave 4 retracing into wave 1. Looks like the selling pressure was too strong. The chart above shows the wave A of the correction: XYZ. If this scenario becomes bearish indeed, I expect Z to be either a ABC, zigzag or triangle. Time will tell.
From now on, I will short every spike up until 2404.
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Short1, TP 2420
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I actually will sit this one out. Weird times. Big gap up. Futures climbing up at the speed of light... Will update.
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Looks like this scenario is unfolding. I started building the short position too early though, because im weak. Fun times.
@KenzoMorsa, Charts are mostly for me to keep track of my train of thoughts and learn from my mistakes. Glad it can bring something to you. I have the bearish scenario in mind now. I don't think it is too dangerous at this point to start shorting all the spikes up. Good luck.
Terl
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@Terl, Note also that the futures climbed up the fall from today. Elliot waves are just to get a rough idea of what's going on and what could happen..
KenzoMorsa
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@Terl, Thanks, i'm only short at the moment with a long term put (not something big), but will add a considerable amount if we see a new ATH in the stock market, but unconfirmed in small stocks.
I see some people here think we just completed wave 3 and still have 4 and 5 to go. Which should take another 2+ years. What are your thoughts on that? Really think it's impossible, fundamentals are messed up, deflation coming in, money velocity crashing, etc.. never see this party lasting another 2+ years, before the big one.
Terl
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@KenzoMorsa, My view is: I think we have one last leg up after this correction, that should bring the SPX to new ATH, but not above 2800. I tried to illustrate it in my graph above but stopped the 5th wave around 2500. Could go to 2600-2800 if we only get a small correction the next months. Then I think we will enter a secular bear market, and the resource sector will be the place to go. I gradually went from 0% to 40% exposure to precious metals since december 2016 and will stay around 40% until we get a currency crisis. Might take years. I have infinite patience though.
Terl
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Also, I am now short as well with small position, will add at 2500 if reached. You can be sure that 2360 will come before 2600. Then my target becomes 2330, then 2240, as illustrated in the trade idea of this post.
Terl
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Finally, one last leg up doesnt have to take +2 years, i can easily see end of 2019 being the tipping point. It doesnt matter when it falls, there are tons of opportunity in the meantime if you trade and do not "buy and hold".
And then fireworks? :p
Great analysis, following your short wa since 4aug