The 80% of retail short are going to get burned. 2020 US presidential elections will be november 2020 maybe that's when the stock market tops, or maybe when it starts going parabolic.
Price could pull back to 2900-3000 / 26000-27000 it should not pull back more than this if it does the situation is to be re-evaluated.
Trump is pretty populist, and conservative, but nothing too crazy and unseen. I can't believe there is literal socialism in the US XD It's actually funny. I must be trapped in a simpsons episode.
If they get to power, expect one giant red candle.
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People whined they were worried about the trade war (they must be comedians), Trump said a trade deal was moving along rapidly. To the moon! Pump it Mr President.
People wonder what the president target for the indices is. Hahahaha. Isn't it obvious? His target is the moon. Infinity. Always higher. Whatever you want to call it. As high as it can go.
Let's do this. Belt on. Helmet on. F5 key on.
When are stock market shills going to start doing their thing?
Show the herd charts like this it'll get them excited (never mention inflation or the time it will take or that a drop to a lower line of the channel down 1 level is -50%):
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JP Morgan Chase has published a document roasting the permabears yesterday.
Since I don't want to go to jail and retail is really bad, I want to forward their disclaimer. JPM "The Armageddonists" pdf is not meant for retail. Look at it for education only. To learn US english grammar. FOR INSTITUTIONAL/WHOLESALE/PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION.
It's actually funny that they have all these disclaimers and tell retail not to read this. They get sued and also senate hearings all the time, they must be so tired.
Retail thinks "might" means "will". And they have a natural disposition to focus on bad news, without the neo cortex necessary to put things into perspective.
Plus the media that focusses on bad news to get views or clics...
Armaggedonism: not just for financial markets Now the herd is more scared of nuclear power than cigarettes, they think the world is going to end (not "0.1% chance" to have mild consequences but 100% chance that BILLIONS will die) because of tiny amounts of co2 that allow plants to grow, they think the wolrd economy is going to collapse tomorrow.
Maybe people need a religion again? They need some strong leaders, religious leaders and kings, to be like fathers to them. I mean they clearly cannot think for themselves and need some guidance. Problem is what about the top 15% or whatever, that do not need this? Leave people a choice.
It's depressing, my ideas on currencies, and on decentralization, did not even get 1/100 the views of my "Bitcoin zero soon" ideas. I understand I posted non Bitcoin charts but still, they got so little attention and "Bitcoin zero soon" gets so much...
I think the price of will soon drop, might be time for a new "BTC zero soon" idea ;) We'll get yet another example of armaggedonism.
Much easier to get people to sell when prices are down 50% with "the world will collapse tomorrow" than telling them "prices are high it might be wise to sell some, or purchase a put to protect against downside" etc.
It actually might make apocalyptic claims true since people will end up panicking and sell when prices are down so much.
WHY is it so much easier to convince people the world is ending than of somethign reasonable? WHY is it so much harder to convince the herd they have been lied to, to lie to them in the first place? Must be their ego they cannot admit they are idiots that got fooled. idk.
This is also a big part of why Donald Trump got elected and why Bernie Sanders scores so high in polls. And why AOC aka salamander IQ gets so much attention.
I think I'll make a separate idea on Armageddonism.
Lmao JPM quotes Nouriel Roubini, I always crack up when I see this clown name. Bearish since 25 cents on BTC, claimed "see? I was right" when btc went to 3k.
Looking at Bitcoin, there has been so many claims that it was dead in the past that now retail is PERSUADED it will keep going up.
The stock market will go parabolic when the same happens with stocks :rubbinghands:
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Every market that retail participates in ends up going parabolic, ends up a bubble, and destroys retail.
This never happens in corporate bonds.
IG clients are adding to their shorts how dumb, I do not know if they represent all retail thought.
I don't know when it will happen and how far it will go but eventually I expect 2 things: - People that have listened to permabear and mainstream media making apocalyptic calls for years, are going to get tired of it and regret missing out and ignore all bears and get persuaded the price will keep going up forever. Just like what happened with cryptocurrencies recently.
- The perma short retail will get burned adding alot of fuel to the rocket ship. Sentiment is still 80-90% short. It's a long way up...
@nsprph, And I realize how crazy the chart looks, both of them.
dRends35
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I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm no @BorisPoff that's for sure.And perhaps not the most popular on the subject, but Neely would suggest that the fastest move dictates the following trend and 2008 crash was steep, and the pre 2019 crash was also very steep, and although there has been some further pump, what really is there in the chart that makes a case for further upward momentum other than attendance on the bearish side?
@london55555
MrRenev
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@dRends35, I think the overseas cash is running out so the buyback bull market is soon over, corporate profits are down right? But price is going up. I am not saying it goes up forever my tgt for the dow is 33,000 it's not that high, on the monthly chart it will be a little bump up before the big fall. 1 last pump before the fall.
There are other reasons such as people not having anywhere else to put their money, when rates are so low or negative.
Bull markets always have an early bear trap before the top and end up with a parabolic move up, I think this is it.
Of course it would be better to have an inflation adjusted one. Since fiat currencies in the XX century the index has gone parabolic but that's for a good reason...
To be fair inflation has gone up because gdp has gone up. But ye since inflation is here so our currencies expand with our gdp, it gets "counted twice" on the stock market charts.
nsprph
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@MrRenev, Love the long term charts from Zero Hedge. The channel should hold , my reason is there a natural undercurrent of technological innovation, fiat system, and vested interest of the big players. Everything in the universe from cycles and our lives are printed on the long term charts.
MrRenev
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@nsprph, Ye I love it too, everything is here, every thing homo sapiens has accomplished, in a chart, and it is beautiful.
If we fall to the bottom of the channel it's world war 3. It we go to the mid line soon then drop to the bottom line that would be 3850->1400 or a 64% drop, biggest in out lifetime, 2008 was 57%. I think the price can fall a bit more 70%-80%.
You could draw a line between 1783 and 1932 respected many times, but even better I think is a line between 1555 and 1696 we went under, then again above, maybe we fall back to this but inflation ruins it thought.
I wonder how relevant it will be.
Even 90% wouldn't be the end of the world.
nsprph
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@MrRenev, You make a great case. Dose is match a very important driver , demographic shifts. Do you have any charts with that info overplayed on the market chart?
nsprph
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You are right on the markets , bullish but not sure on bitcoin. I had the same thought as you till someone pointed out different asset class for different generation. I am an Xer so have to think like millennials. In that case you might think money will flow in to cryptos as they grow older and have more disposable income. Ray Dalio was wrong in the early 80s looking for a bear market and that was the time to get bullish due to boomers starting to enter the age of 35 and peak earning. He is making a similar call of a bear market when the millennials turned 35( 2016). But not only will money flow the the growth stocks but also to cryptos. Just food for thought. It did make me reconsider my investments and have adjusted accordingly.
Good luck!