DaddySawbucks

BECAUSE YOU'RE SURE, ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN, YOU SHOULD SHORT NOW?!?

TVC:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Not saying this will happen, just that it could very easily do this before it collapses.

Indicators are overbought and suggest sell imminent, but these can fake you out, a small pullback could provoke the vertical spike.

All the gamma is gone positive and rolling up the callwall 100 pips could release the kraken on Friday 31st.

Most ultimate ATH have a parabolic blowoff peak, the sideways move for past few days could be prep for it.

Just imagine if you plunge in whole hog and buy 1K puts now, what you would look like after a move like this... be carefull!
Comment: As usual, any shorts taken overnight were not rewarded. Fade the gap might work briefly, would not get big short here, supply may be waiting to sell in 2022 for tax reasons IMO
Trade active: Took the early short and got a nice scalp; rolled into calls and scalped those, maybe done for the day, LOL, HNY!
Comment: Yeah FGS look at the damned thing, bulling again... ATH EOY EOD Friday?!
Comment: Mid-day SPX trades back at the gap open price. Tough call here; will the 4800 resistance turn to support? Or close the gap, then bounce back to resistance? Anyone's guess atm, staying out!
Comment: FYI, I see many authors suggest selling weekly call spreads now. Maybe you can scalp a nickel or a dime, but a real possibility exists that the damned thing can jump gap up EOY and the 50c calls turn into 3,4 or 5 bucks.

Eg; Fri QQQ 405 call is 65c at 11:15 am. You could write a $4 Call spread buying the 409s for a nickel. You pony up $4k in margin to sell ten spreads for a $600 credit.

Tomorrow you are horrified to find the futures bright green and gap up +$3 to $406, runaway gap to $409 so hedge funds can liquidate their holdings they paid 408.80 for last month. They will manipulate price to get their money back and you will lose over 6x your credit. These weeklies can kill you. If it gaps up, you may never have a chance to close favorably.

Picking up dimes in front of a freight train... sometimes you get run over.
Comment: Another tip: you really gotta watch the Greeks especially on 0DTE, 1DTE contracts. Every half hour on a 0DTE you can watch the premium drop 8-10%. To win anything off these you gotta get em just before or during a move. If price doesn't move for you real soon Theta, Greek Time, will kill your play. 1DTE contracts (trading Fridays on Thursday, like today) still fade pretty fast but not as bad as the zeroes.

Vega will kill novices. If there's a sharp price action (PA), demand jumps and Vega drives the premium up, sometimes as much as 50%. So a $1 daily call trades suddenly for $1.50 or more. You really gotta have a strong move in your favor to beat the Vega, if PA fades the option quickly returns to normal premium and you're out 30-40% instantly. Novices buy at market and pay too much, very quickly these melt away as PA fades.

Finally, notice when buying ATM contracts how the premium is highest at the strike price. As PA carries option into the money (ITM), notice how you gain very little relatively, as you are just swapping Premium for ITM value. I watched QQQ $403 put trading for $1.55 ATM, stock PA moved 50c ITM now it's at 402.50, but the damned contract gained just .15c, trading at $1.70 bid, 1.75 asked.

See how hard it is to win these reindeer games?!

But it's real easy to LOSE; if price moves away just $1 your premium will go off as much as 50c, the Delta, most important Greek of all, reckons how much your contract moves for a $1 move in stock price. $2 calls turn into $1 real fast when the PA moves sharply lower, these are damned risky toys! Near-expiry contracts have a very high Delta, they move a LOT. So, very rewarding when it moves in your favor, devastating when it moves the wrong way!

Happy New Year to all and to all a Good Night!
Comment: Took a small PM short in QQQ, IWM, closed both ITM just before the EOD selloff, LOL. Figured it would bounce EOD but they came to dump right to the close fgs. Actually tried a few QQQ calls in last quarter, was able to close for a push, lucky.

Get ready for more vol! Took a few bear spreads EOD in the AH.
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