Cincinnatuus

SPX Look Ahead for week starting 1/05/20

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
The S&P 500 is in long-term Bull Market with price trading above the 50 and 200 and 800 week emas. The 50 week ema is currently up trending, but price finally pulled off the upper Bollinger Band last week and put in a doji , showing some equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Price would have to drop all the way down to 3133 before we would consider the market to be correcting, and the median price on the weekly is all the way down at 3100, showing just how over-extended this market is. The FED Repo operations should be less extensive in the New Year as well, taking away some of the massive liquidity, causing stock prices to melt up.

The Market is in a Long-Term Bull Market on the daily, with the 50 ema above the 200 ema and 800 ema . Price has pulled away from a long-term trend line and is consolidating sideway, but has yet to close below the 13 ema at 3217. Price is flirting with the median Bollinger price level at 3220 and the other technicals are starting to turn down from extreme high levels.

The Market is in a Bull Market on the 4 hour, with price above the 50 ema , which is above the 200 ema and 800 ema . The price action has been breaking the 13 ema over the last several trading days. I expect a test of the 30 ema down at 3210 next week, which would allow for a nice stop hunt below a prior low. If things get extreme in geopolitics, we could see a test of 50 ema down at 3185, which isn’t likely.

With all the rhetoric coming out the Propaganda News Media, and the fear of additional terrorism coming from Iran, Social Mood is likely to be negative and the markets are likely to open down next week. Then there will probably be dip buying, and we are just as likely to be at the highs again by the end of the week.

This is my SPX 500 look ahead for my own trading purposes. FUTURES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
Trade closed: target reached: This post was pretty close to dead on, though the bottom in the S&P got put in during the London Session in after hours. In fact, after hours trading was absolute Chaos! I went out for dinner Tuesday night and by the time I got back the Ferocious Sell-Off had hit bottom and pretty much bounced back to unchanged...

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