My most recent SPX post speculated that the SPX could have bottomed on 10/26 or on 10/29. The SPX had a strong move up after its bottom on 10/29 and now have a daily Stochastic bullish cross over. In addition to the bullish momentum and sentiment evidence of a possible bottom - November is the most bullish month for US stocks.
This is the evidence. Of the last 20 Novembers 14 have closed - up, 6 have closed - down.
Of the 6 down Novembers 3 were down significantly - 2000, 2007, and 2008 all bear markets.
The other 3 were 2010, 2011, and 2015 - all were down marginally. Of these 3 only 2015 had stocks continue lower after November. Adding 2015 to the 3 large down Novembers,
means that only 4 out of 20 Novembers you would lose after buying the beginning of November to at least January. That's 20%.
There's an 80% chance US stocks will rise from November 1st until at least January.
The Ending Diagonal Triangle count for the SPX is still valid - however the October 2018 decline was almost equal to the February decline. In Horizontal Triangles each adjacent wave have Fibonacci relationships. The best Elliott Wave count for the SPX from the February peak is that a Horizontal Triangle is under construction.
Target for possible major SPX top is 3050 - Time target January to February 2019.
Mark
This is the evidence. Of the last 20 Novembers 14 have closed - up, 6 have closed - down.
Of the 6 down Novembers 3 were down significantly - 2000, 2007, and 2008 all bear markets.
The other 3 were 2010, 2011, and 2015 - all were down marginally. Of these 3 only 2015 had stocks continue lower after November. Adding 2015 to the 3 large down Novembers,
means that only 4 out of 20 Novembers you would lose after buying the beginning of November to at least January. That's 20%.
There's an 80% chance US stocks will rise from November 1st until at least January.
The Ending Diagonal Triangle count for the SPX is still valid - however the October 2018 decline was almost equal to the February decline. In Horizontal Triangles each adjacent wave have Fibonacci relationships. The best Elliott Wave count for the SPX from the February peak is that a Horizontal Triangle is under construction.
Target for possible major SPX top is 3050 - Time target January to February 2019.
Mark