With the events that are currently spurring around the world it poses a great question as to whether a bear market is possible to be sparked in this climate. Only time will tell, but the historical trend line on this chart by itself looks plausible...
50%+ declines have been seen numerous times throughout the past 100 years, and as its been a longer than usual period without a sharp decline that could signal one to be just around the corner.
- COVID-19 - OIL price war - Historically low interest rates to spark consumer spending (stimulate the economy) - High house prices - Manufacturing slowdown (especially in the EU)
I'll be consulting this chart in 5 years time to see how wrong I was - or right...
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1st area of large support at $2350 approaching.
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Both bull (trap) and bear scenarios at this stage. The bull option could see a test of the previously broken trend line up to the 50 fib level and a possible further decline from there. The bear option could present a failed retest of the downwards trend line to new lows: