I have refrained from posting for sometime now as this rally has gone on for much longer than expected and I don't want to be too premature again.
However, while performing cross analysis of global markets, I discovered recently that both European and Asian markets led the U.S. markets by about two weeks. It seems probable that the same time fractal is about to play out, which means the next global market crash might begin on Wednesday, August 5th.
Bullish sentiment measurements in "all asset classes", not just the stock market, have pretty much blown through every historic highs. To me this means the next most probable path is a sudden, shocking and devastating crash, even more violent and perhaps more prolonged than the February decline.
Take caution. AAPL stocks soared to the moon today, yet the company has failed to do anything fundamentally incredible since 2014. Stock market bubbles have always ended in a final hoorah of invincibility, although most likely not remember due to the waves of bad news that proceed.
European and Asian markets don't move US markets. It's the other way around. If you want an indication look at the 10 year bonds and copper. Values below 0.500 on bonds and below 2.8 on copper would likely signal that the shit is about to hit the fan. Putting a date on when that is gonna happen is just stupid.
supere
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How are you going to prepare to trade without date estimate?
Svetul4o
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@supere, Well look at how prepared you are. Your prior date estimate turned out to be a little vague. Kinda had to stretch it a bit and still did not happen. So what now? If at first you don't succeed try a hundred more times and you'll get it eventually. If you want to short the market now, go long bonds. They are already moving in the right direction. Markets will follow at some point. In other words trade the market you have, not the one you wish for.
SP500daytrader
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@Svetul4o, You make good answers but I don't understand the aggressive way you address them. I fully agree and share @supere analysis.
Svetul4o
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@SP500daytrader, You on the other hand don't make good answers and I can barely understand what you mean. Oh and by the way the 5th came and went and there is no crash. Do we extend the deadline to the 7th or 10th? Hopefully the S&P will take notice and ashamed will dive down to make the fortune tellers right at least once a year.
I’m holding bear etfs end of day, swing trading in mornings, it’s been paying off as the market increases. Now and again I’ll drop into something I feel will increase off hours, mostly positive. You look at consumer spending, it’s down, dramatically, yet the stock market held up. People are not out and about, the restaurant, travel, and service industry is suffering bad, and all that extra money people would use are being thrown into the market. I believe it’s just making the wage gap that much more dramatic, as the market should not be this high compared to earnings, not by a long shot. It’ll come soon enough, but I’ve been waiting for the bottom to fall out. Being a bear on euphoria stage, complacency stage, whatever people want to call it, is hard, but patience will surely yield amazing results. They did in March.