If we look at the past very long bullmarkets, we can see that there is a strong similarity of the phase 2000-2008 and 1929 to 1945. It seems that this time, the recovery is faster, and the market wants to start the next long bullrun.
If it is similar to back then, we could see a very long bullrun until 2030, where we'd see a 2 year bearmarket interruption, then another 25+ year bullrun.
I know it sounds crazy, but this is just a idea. There is of course not guarantee that it will play out like this.
1.Widening in yearly, like at the beginning of last bullruns.
2. on overbought, could stay there until end of 2020s, if similar to last pattern.
We can see in the yearly picture that we indeed could see a similar situation as in the lat 50s, that's where we would be now if this fractal megacycle idea holds true.
The current yearly candle looks very strong and absolutely not like a crash imho:
We'll see, much can happen in a year, but longterm-wise, the yearly picture looks extremely healthy until around 2030.
It doesn't come. Instead, we see new rallies and alltime highs.
I think my yearly picture will hold. It will just continue to rise until no one expects a crash any more. When really everyone thinks it impossible, THEN the crash will come :)
This will be an epic bullmarket.
Advisor perspective has a great model
s and P 500 regression to trend since 1871
3050 - 3085 range over the next couple of months put us right at 123.6% which is 3 standard deviations!
2000 reached 131%
Any thing above 3 standard deviations happens only less then .003 percent of the time about 3 in a 1000 very rare!
It would be hard to imagine this market going over 3200 - 3250 range. In my opinion at the 3 standard deviations i would say is a good risk to reward short.
The Buffet indicator is at 146.7% all time high 2000 at 148.5%
This market is loosing steam.
So let's see how it will unfold, but I think this can go on for quite a while until the next crash. It will happen when no one is expecting it, and when everyone is ultra bullish :)
I will update this chart from time to time. Thanks again for your comment.
I just noticed the interesting similarity with past cycles. Let's see when this crash will come :)