FlaviusTodorius67

SP500 super cycles: Yearly picture not in favor of crash

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Here is an interesting analysis of the yearly picture on the SP500 . Contrary to shorter timeframes, where the weekly and monthly show that we could have quite a stockmarket correction this year, the yearly picture looks much more bullish .

If we look at the past very long bullmarkets, we can see that there is a strong fractal similarity of the phase 2000-2008 and 1929 to 1945. It seems that this time, the recovery is faster, and the market wants to start the next long bullrun.

If it is similar to back then, we could see a very long bullrun until 2030, where we'd see a 2 year bearmarket interruption, then another 25+ year bullrun.
I know it sounds crazy, but this is just a fractal idea. There is of course not guarantee that it will play out like this.

Other similarities:
1.Widening bollinger band in yearly, like at the beginning of last bullruns.
2. Stoch RSI on overbought, could stay there until end of 2020s, if similar to last pattern.

Apr 11
Comment: Everyone including his grandmother and dog expect a crash, therefore crash not happening :)

We can see in the yearly picture that we indeed could see a similar situation as in the lat 50s, that's where we would be now if this fractal megacycle idea holds true.

The current yearly candle looks very strong and absolutely not like a crash imho:


We'll see, much can happen in a year, but longterm-wise, the yearly picture looks extremely healthy until around 2030.
Apr 24
Comment: That's what happens when everyone expects a crash XD
It doesn't come. Instead, we see new rallies and alltime highs.

I think my yearly picture will hold. It will just continue to rise until no one expects a crash any more. When really everyone thinks it impossible, THEN the crash will come :)
Jun 20
Comment: And surprise, SP500 about to make new highs. That's what happens when everyone including their grandma are expecting a crash.
This will be an epic bullmarket.
Stocks will go higher, not because of the economy. Rather it will be the devaluation of currency that fuels the run.
Reply
Howdy folks!
Advisor perspective has a great model
s and P 500 regression to trend since 1871
3050 - 3085 range over the next couple of months put us right at 123.6% which is 3 standard deviations!
2000 reached 131%
Any thing above 3 standard deviations happens only less then .003 percent of the time about 3 in a 1000 very rare!
It would be hard to imagine this market going over 3200 - 3250 range. In my opinion at the 3 standard deviations i would say is a good risk to reward short.
The Buffet indicator is at 146.7% all time high 2000 at 148.5%
This market is loosing steam.
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I am really impressed with your work.
Something that does not come easily to me,
as I have been quite bearish for some time
Hopefully you will update your S+P analysis again soon.
Thank you.
+2 Reply
@The_Unwind, Thanks :) I'll try to update it soon. Let's see where the yearly candle closes, but as we can see, no crash is happening, on the contrary, SP500 is making new all time highs. I was just looking at fractal similarity, and the general sentiment. If too many people are bearish and expect a crash, normally the opposite happens, hehe. Which we are seeing right now.

So let's see how it will unfold, but I think this can go on for quite a while until the next crash. It will happen when no one is expecting it, and when everyone is ultra bullish :)
I will update this chart from time to time. Thanks again for your comment.
Reply
You're not considering diminishing returns in investments. Also not considering the very low unemployment rate: it cannot possibly keep going down, and will eventually go back up, which will trigger a crash. And since the FED already has interest rates really low (and Trump wants them even lower), there will be no immidiate remedy to the crash. It's not a matter of "if", it's a matter of "when", and the "when" is in a few years tops. I'd guess months but who am I.
Reply
@bgrandimbtc, I was thinking the same since 5 years but the stocks just keep pumping and pumping and pumping. This idea is based on a fractal scenario, so maybe it should not be taken like it's going to happen 100% that way. In this scenario we'd get a quite strong bear around 2030.
I just noticed the interesting similarity with past cycles. Let's see when this crash will come :)
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That's what I currently see hapenning on a bigger scale:
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Bull run until 2060...are you dreaming...:)
+1 Reply
ReallyMe gvoommen
@gvoommen, until 2036... according to my idea from Feb 13, 2019 ;-)
+2 Reply
gvoommen ReallyMe
@ReallyMe, How about 2090...bull run :)
+1 Reply
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