Here is an interesting analysis of the yearly picture on the SP500. Contrary to shorter timeframes, where the weekly and monthly show that we could have quite a stockmarket correction this year, the yearly picture looks much more bullish.
If we look at the past very long bullmarkets, we can see that there is a strong fractal similarity of the phase 2000-2008 and 1929 to 1945. It seems that this time, the recovery is faster, and the market wants to start the next long bullrun.
If it is similar to back then, we could see a very long bullrun until 2030, where we'd see a 2 year bearmarket interruption, then another 25+ year bullrun. I know it sounds crazy, but this is just a fractal idea. There is of course not guarantee that it will play out like this.
Other similarities: 1.Widening bollinger band in yearly, like at the beginning of last bullruns. 2. Stoch RSI on overbought, could stay there until end of 2020s, if similar to last pattern.
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Everyone including his grandmother and dog expect a crash, therefore crash not happening :)
We can see in the yearly picture that we indeed could see a similar situation as in the lat 50s, that's where we would be now if this fractal megacycle idea holds true.
The current yearly candle looks very strong and absolutely not like a crash imho:
We'll see, much can happen in a year, but longterm-wise, the yearly picture looks extremely healthy until around 2030.
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That's what happens when everyone expects a crash XD It doesn't come. Instead, we see new rallies and alltime highs.
I think my yearly picture will hold. It will just continue to rise until no one expects a crash any more. When really everyone thinks it impossible, THEN the crash will come :)
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And surprise, SP500 about to make new highs. That's what happens when everyone including their grandma are expecting a crash. This will be an epic bullmarket.
I am really impressed with your work.
Something that does not come easily to me,
as I have been quite bearish for some time
Hopefully you will update your S+P analysis again soon.
Thank you.
SebastianofMoon
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@The_Unwind, Thanks :) I'll try to update it soon. Let's see where the yearly candle closes, but as we can see, no crash is happening, on the contrary, SP500 is making new all time highs. I was just looking at fractal similarity, and the general sentiment. If too many people are bearish and expect a crash, normally the opposite happens, hehe. Which we are seeing right now.
So let's see how it will unfold, but I think this can go on for quite a while until the next crash. It will happen when no one is expecting it, and when everyone is ultra bullish :)
I will update this chart from time to time. Thanks again for your comment.
ReallyMe
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interesting view... well, I don't know about yearly, but looking at the monthly, wave 2 retraced from 0.382 to 0.236 last time (Nov1980 - Jun1982).
if my assumption is correct and we are in wave 2 now as well, then we still have quite a way to go down from 0.382 (2914) to 0.236 (2100).
so personaly, I believe that the retracement to 2100 is unfolding as we speak and will be taking place over the next few months. of course, I could be wrong. we will see
SebastianofMoon
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@ReallyMe, Thanks for sharing, yes, looking good! Your view would also be in line with the yearly picture, which basically would just mean that the yearly candle would be slightly red. So going kinda sideway-ish in the longer timeframe. I agree with the 2100 target. I don't really see it retrace 50-70% any more. The bounce here has been too strong, the market is still too bullish. Your wavecount also seems to be right.
@eeid, Thanks for the link, very interesting read. Yes, that's exactly the reason why I see it continuing to climb for a long time until some really grave recession strikes. Because with ZIRP, there basically is no other way for people to store their money and protect it against inflation, in such an effective way. Sure, real estate is another one, but real estate prices are therefore also rising.
So for high net worth individuals, there only remains the stock market besides real estate. Crypto is not yet well established enough, but it will get there in the coming years.
stasyszy
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Stocks will go higher, not because of the economy. Rather it will be the devaluation of currency that fuels the run.
gvoommen
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Bull run until 2060...are you dreaming...:)
ReallyMe
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@gvoommen, until 2036... according to my idea from Feb 13, 2019 ;-)
Something that does not come easily to me,
as I have been quite bearish for some time
Hopefully you will update your S+P analysis again soon.
Thank you.