With a parabolically escalating trade war between USA-China and no 100% confirmation on rate cuts until September I strongly believe we can expect another day of extreme down-risk pressure where the S&P will plummet to about 2740.
I believe Tuesday and maybe Wednesday we will be slightly bullish and combine for a 1-2 day relief rally before a strong impulse bear market down to December lows at-least, by the Fall.
I believe this relief rally won't actually get us to the important 2840, but will rather be a fake-out to the upside and fall short. The relief rally will probably come as a result of some fake news on the back of how the increasing trade war might get a September rate cut.
Its possible we don't get much of a relief rally at all, but rather, it stops only slightly to the upside (hence the yellow line). Right now I am 50-50 on which path we will go.
Monitor Sunday and Monday trading carefully. If we fall below 2740 the risk of a relief rally of any decent gains is very small.
Target (Monday) - 2740 Target (Tuesday) Relief Rally / Fake Bull - 2800 Then Bear Market Possible
- zSplit
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Just like I called in my original post, Trump issues a fake story about China wanting to talk.
Haven’t we heard this fake story 50 times already? Well it’s a good way to trigger the algo bots.
For this reason, people must be very careful in this market as Trump shows he loves illegal stock market manipulation.
My advice is don’t read into these future bounces as they are intended to trap people. Don’t put in huge long or short entries.
Watch the bond market closely as bonds don’t respond as “fakely” as futures to fake news.
constructive criticism: usually if you're going to make far flung predictions, some sort of evidence is expected. what are the catalysts for these moves?
Thanks for the comment. There are many reasons for which I have explained in depth on many of my other ideas that have panned out almost perfectly every time, but I will kindly list some here to answer your question.
Firstly, the general trend is down. Whether it goes a few hundred points lower, higher, or a week or two later or earlier than how I depicted, in reality, it is irrelevant.
So, why are we going down? One of the simplest reasons is that Gold and Silver are on the verge of an epic and historic bull run. Is it that simple? Yes it is. Algo bots will not buy Gold and Silver in huge volume like current, unless the economic situation around the world is dire.
Other reasons:
- Exceptional debt around the world (country and consumer)
- Quantitative easing down to 0 all over the world
- No threat of rate hikes
- Negative yields
- Falling treasuries
- Trade war escalation
- Hong Kong protests
- Japan/South Korea geopolitical issues
- Weak GDP numbers
- Manufacturing recession
Will we get bounces? Of course we will. The market right now is actually simple. While the trend is down, there will be some bounces to trap the bulls. Nothing ever goes up in a straight line - nor down, however, if you analyze geopolitical tensions, monetary policy and political issues around the world, it is obvious that the markets are going to crash hard in the next 1-3 months.
- zSplit
davidm9999
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@zSplit, I agree with all your points except for the 1-3 months part. Certainly it won't be anyone factor but a myriad of factors. I would caution you, don't just jump into a short position. All the factors you mentioned, except those that are most recent, played into my bear thesis over the past 7 years. However, none of those factors were enough to drive a dive in stocks. I suggest you learn to trade technical patterns, that way you're not tied to one the fate of the market, too much. However, take my advice with a grain of salt. If your investment process works, more power to you