With that being said, lets start analysing! Dont forget to give a Like if you agree with my idea.
This is the second time that we will be analysing the S&P500 and you can consider this as a follow upon our first idea. Just like we analysed gold (which is following our guidelines perfectly) we plan to do these on a long term basis and just to let you guys know our long term view on things.
We have been accumulating shorts since our first update and we did manage to find the top almost exactly. Our shorts have been piled up all the way to 3009. Our first entry was 2900, the second one was 2949 and on the last one we have doubled up so 2 positions on 3009.
We have had a lot of noise the last couple of months, with biases changing every day. And with the trade war news made things very difficult to judge. But we managed to keep our vision clear. We are on the top of a 10 year bullrun, no matter what this needs a thorough correction.
Fed cut rates by another 0.25% was the tipping point for the coming weeks, the investors simply do not believe in the stimulans anymore and that is why they are beginning to sell. Then trump also declared other tarrifs and the tradewar could soon be escalating. Then Brexit is going to be happening anywhere this year. All factors beside price action that tell that the top could be in.
Now lets get to the Price Action!
We are currently seeing the breakout of a ascending . At ForAllCrypto are one of our favourite patterns because of the accuracy and hitrate we get from them. Since the is shown on the weekly and the daily graph this gives us a high probability of going down. The first targets are goven on the chart, we expect to fall down easily to the 50 and 100 on the weekly graph. Here we can expect some action and maybe even some upside but we do not think that these are going to hold. We believe that another retest of the 200 weekly is inevitable. That is why we keep the first target of our shorts (the lowest one we placed) around the 2500/2600 area.
The price action upon reaching the weekly 200SMA will dictate any next steps, but we believe that at some point it is not going to hold anymore and that we will most likely be falling towards our goals stated on the first analyses. 2100->1800->1500, if you would like to know why these are our goals make sure to check our last analyses on the S&P500 or to follow us on TV!
I hope you guys enjoyed another long term analyses and if you did, make sure to leave a Like!