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# Time's up WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR? EDGE OF A REVOLUTION UPDATE1

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
1846 82
You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you can not fool all the people all the time.
Abraham Lincoln

Harmonic , fib and numbers are ruling the charts and geometric             the world we see - so what are we waiting for?
Time is up!!! I see next week being ugly.

Listen to the songs...then you'll know how to read the chart....

Music at work:
http://open.spotify.com/track/2ZLiGnLYi4F11P2AqRPRLX
http://open.spotify.com/track/1yOMHh92qk9FR6BTvQyE5N

First of all its a logarithmic chart:.

13 years of consolidation before a break out. Is that what we have been waiting for? 13 is also a fib number
Take a fib measure from the dot.com top to bottom and add 13 to your fib... gives 666.80.
There is 391 bars between dotcom - subprime tops and 2751 days. 3+9+1 = 13. Will we see history repeat itself?

I believe in cycles so if we are to see another 2751 days before next major top.... then time is about to be up!

This time around it gives 393 bars for making it the 2751 days. Playing with numbers then: 3+9+3 = 15
and 1+5 = 6 - could mean 6 years of bull market.

The top might only be a very short spike up and then puff - just like we've seen in the SPY             december 18th 2014 (See link to chart right underneath the text here).

I'll be short from 2138             .04 (2+1+3+8+0+4 = 18 ... 1+8 = 9)

Time will tell but Fear not!
@BLawrenceM

BTW: If its all math then for your reflection:

In numerology, the number 13 is considered to be the representation of perfection and completion. It stands to reason, then, that trying to improve upon perfection by adding a digit is a very bad idea indeed — your greed will be rewarded with bad luck.

For the religious or those who believe in other interpretations... I'll leave it up to you in order not to be offensive :
But 13, 6, 7, 9 & 666 all have their meaning.
Well we're not at 2138 yet.
QuantitativeExhaustion
Before end of month... the way I see it
WallStScalper
Keeps breaking ground on new lows. Where is your minnute wave 5 ?
SP in the last c-leg up in it's Ending Diagonal http://gyazo.com/b5a709ef97118d7a4ddba8180a5f7e37
13 is not an unlucky # for believers of Jesus , we are not to be superstitious .
G13Man
No the contrary!!! If you see this picture.... how many do you see? What was being said by Jesus and ....well any way see this plz: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7P1bUCYhpm4
WallStScalper
no to which question , 13 unlucky ,
or
we are not to be superstitious
G13Man
What if I believe in the market as jesus?
Ice_
Well as I have learned the bible... jesus did not like the moneychangers ... but everyone has the right to their believes... I'm not trying to say what's right or wrong here.... Just to make people reflect on things.
What has superstition got to do with trading?
13 is just a number - the meaning you give it is coming purely from your own beliefs

It is no different from people who think 14 period RSI's work, 14 periods? really? what makes you think that 14 periods is representative of a cycle in a market?

they are all based on assumptions which are tied to beliefs, problem is people don't question the underlying assumptions by validating them first
dionvuletich
Sorry this was not meant to be a criticism or anything, but I find it fascinating people belief things without verifying or testing it themselves first
dionvuletich
WallStScalper
Lawrence - Great post. Thank you for sharing. I've learned a lot from you. Are you holding on for 2135 or could this be the top?Please add a comment… Positive feedback and constructive criticism are important to authors and the community.
Trailrunner
Well first of all. I couldn't agree more in your statement and thanks for your kind words.

Well I'm just a normal being... using numbers as my tools. I believe we'll see the 1.618 extension due to the significance of the number being hovering around PHi. So right now I sit and wait for it to happen. Will price surpass it...probably thats the whole reasoning with Phi and fibonacci. By how much. hmm Time will tell. But I do believe we see 2138.04 being hit.
WallStScalper
Very interesting - Thanks for sharing. I will be learning more on this topic.
reluctantplumber
Thanks for your comment Glad I was able to give you something :)
WallStScalper
BLawrence, thanks for providing the instructive chart and the comments to go along with it.

When you deem it time to take action on the expected downturn, what is your favorite vehicle to employ ? 2X or 3X Short ETF ? Actual short ? or other ??
hurlo001
Thanks for your comments! I can only answer for what I will do myself. Since I'm not having the possibility of doing options. I need to either short stocks or use ETF's. In case of ETF..... I'll use the SPXU 3 times bear fund. But remember first of all .... confirmation in this game is everything and that the market might use a lot of time convincing the BTFD-crowed that this mentality doesn't work any more. Volatility will therefore increase and the tree will be shaken harder. The really big short comes later on when we have seen the counterrally after the first wave down .... at the top of wave 2. There we will have the real conformation of further downside to come. We might see summertime bring more of what we have seen since new year...more trading range and then october - notoriously known as crashtobe.... Many things have to be considered and confirmation given before we really see some huge downside. BUT! Price action will reveal the patterns along the way. Hope it helps.
dionvuletich
I'm assuming you haven't studied anything related to algorithm optimization in trading. In most of my RSI algos, the best fit is always 14. I don't know why, but that's the way it is, just look for it yourself. There's no superstition.
Ice_
No need to, don't use RSI - it was purely stating that whatever number only has relevance because people think it does, how you use the number is something else entirely
dionvuletich
Well, in the common sense I agree with you, but talking about RSI itself, the 14 number is one of the most famous ones because it works most of the time when you backtest. So it's not purely taken out of the blue.
For the record BLawrence - totally agree with your post, I am short some indices already and looking at macro charts I think a lot of them in Europe and the US look precarious so absolutely agree with you
Consider this too:
from 1981/2 lows to 1994, about 13 yr period, there is another bull market, with a rising wedge from 1987 low to 1994 high.
And many idicators showed divergence in that period.
BUT this resulted not in a breakdown but a 6 year FASTER rising bull market that turned out to be the dot-com boom.
So need to watch both possibilities.
4apprentice08
Yes but the current bull run is currently the 4th longest in the last 90 years, the 1987 to 2000 bull run was the longest in the last 90 years at around 13 years

We are currently a few months in terms of duration off the No.3 position... there were different drivers in 1987 - 2000 the key ones being the major shift in manufacturing centres from west to lower cost centres in the east, improvements in processes due to advances in technology etc and an abundance in credit thanks to Nixon and continual increases in debt.

The current run has been fuelled by one thing and one thing only QE...
The improvements in earnings are only coming after years of QE and ZIRP and now buybacks which has prevented natural price discovery and normal pricing of risk

The whole mechanism for pricing risk has been distorted by Central bank QE, the delusion is that nearly everybody believes right now the market is 'Risk-Free' because the Central banks have got our backs - which in my view is both false and dangerous..!

When the cracks happen and a sharp drop there will be denial first, probably a rally beyond the prior top and everybody will believe it is all ok again... false alarm... and then it will deteriorate from there..

The good thing about pain and losses is that people actually start paying attention to what they are buying again
dionvuletich
I fully agree in your answer. QE have bought time for the politicians to do reforms but nothing has happened on that front. But QE has also created a new normal... and I think it's fair to look at the other side just to see if something has been overlooked. One question still unsolved for me is. With that much QE why haven't we seen hyperinflation yet. We have in equities (bubble) yes but..... Well long story short... try listen to this argument for a doubling of the market....: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYal9ndXi1I&index=85&list=WL
WallStScalper
QE is an easy way to kick the can down the road to be someone elses problem... it is politically easy to simply let central banks print money than to actually face and solve problems and the backlashes that come with it..

The politicians are resting on their laurels an letting the central bank give them all a free ride with no stress, but longer term it only increases the risks
dionvuletich
Which probably explains why the market swings over the last 15 years have become more and more violent as central banks obscure the market pricing mechanism and the adjustments back to normal have to swing back from greater extremes and excesses; in the last 15 years nothing really has changed - central bank has the back of the big 4 banks... period. everything else is the same reforms get unreformed, crises are opportunities to gouge more money from taxpayers and the fed, and the perpetual money machine goes on and on but only with an additional zero on the back end

Best we can do is trade well and make money!
dionvuletich
Yes indeed ... ! I really like your approach. :)
dionvuletich
QE doesn't work this way. The FED wouldn't print money to "satisfy politicians", it actually has to do with econometric math.
Ice_
It is a by-product of easy money
dionvuletich
It's a consequence, not a product. It's made to balance the deflation, and it has been working for years now.
Ice_
Yes - it's been "working" . It robs the masses of interest on savings and pensions to prop up the banksters - and yes, I understand econometrics. I hold degrees in mathematics and economics. When natural price discovery returns, and it will, the fallacy, the house of cards that ZIRP has created will fall hard.
Trailrunner
Do you by any chance preffer the Hayek version? If so, that'd explain a lot. On both econometric and behavioral economics there's no such thing as "natural price", that is a fallacy. There's no floor, and interest rates are not the cause of everything.
Ice_
Yes ok, ...an unintended 'consequence' why stick your neck out to make changes when you don't really have to? complacency is far easier
Ice_
I see your point due to also seeing the market as not being free any longer but - in lack of a better word - "manipulated" by Feds trading desk.
Things have to add up and a credit crisis need easy money to float in trying to overcome the lack of trust in the system. Kind of rebalancing. But doesn't all man made eventually have built-in flaws? Hmmm... With this one I see some unfortunately ones happen that could result in dire consequences..... The reason for having song number to "The edge of revolution" mentioned above.
WallStScalper
The reason for having song number two*
Ice_
http://americanfreepress.net/?p=2743
and the FED is illegal by the constitution , where by the USA could revoke the charter and print money to pay them off , print money to pay all debt off ,even to all individual usa citizens . then print new denomination bills to avoid a run on wheel barrows and wagons . , new minimium wage [ about a million an hour and walla , the inflation we all worry about ..
G13Man
Ice_
either way , we crash ,one way we hurt , the other we get rid of the bankers ,but still will hurt , just with out the central bankers , whoops jumped on the conspiracy wagon , lol
G13Man
Lets not be all doom and gloomers. regardless of the situation our job is to profit from it! =)
dionvuletich
Agree... full stop! The easy way it though chosen by many. I believe that bad deeds return to discomfort their perpetrator.
The chickens will come home to roost.
WallStScalper
Well new low, how do we decipher this ?
Interesting conversation with intelligent people here, that is why I like traders! they are smarter than average and see things differently... thanks for the great discussion and interesting viewpoints -

Re the fed, central banks etc while we all agree QE distorts the free market and it makes for an interesting discussion the reality is we can only focus on what we can control which is our execution of our plan and adapt to the environment in which we operate

Best of luck to you all and hope all your trades are green!
Close up view of the trendlines. Still no weekly breakout of the trading range.
2138!
jangseohee
Too many fibs fit in :)
what about touching 2138 from 2046?not from here, i suppose if we close friday lower 2100, it can be possible.
nice one, 13 the perfect number then.
\$SPX still right on track for the last push for the 2138. Now in wave 4: http://gyazo.com/46c292b55797ab95394685eed6e91a41
WallStScalper
still have target price 2138 for Thursday/Friday?
QuantitativeExhaustion
I think we see some kind of bankster spike rally on wednesday to get tothe 2138 and then dump. Right now I sit and calculate on how low the SPXU will go in that spike then making an preorder a day in advance to hopefully to be filled.
WallStScalper
I think S&P 2138 level should correspond to about 32.31 for SPXU. You may want to give yourself a buffer to make sure it gets filled. Safe trading!
Trailrunner
Thanks! Same to you!
QuantitativeExhaustion
I have confluence zones on the chart so think i go ½ in on 2138 and the rest on confirmation
WallStScalper
2101 After market low
WallStScalper
Are you seeing any evidence of a wave 1 of 5 wave?
QuantitativeExhaustion
I see staying above 2100 and then go north. I'm not in the bearcamp yet... even though SP looks very sloppy here. But Nasdaq seems to lead. Let's though keep an eye on a possible double top in apple.
WallStScalper
agree with you and sp did not finish butterfly till 2135 yet.
julia17
We see the same :)
WallStScalper
Perhaps oil see bigger drop before US equities.
WallStScalper
Nice Call. It does appear we going to get 3-4-5 final here tomorrow
WallStScalper
That was a deep unexpected wave 2
QuantitativeExhaustion
Can't find your answer in here... to many posts... can you write it here or on the bottom?
WallStScalper
Question :)
WallStScalper
Confused to your reply's. You posted a 5 wave minnute phase for a high for close yesterday or today. Would like to see your updated opinion. Will we reach 2138 after all or is the 1.618 fib not going to be tagged for another try at a later date?
QuantitativeExhaustion
Okay here are my thoughts: http://gyazo.com/90c552eb2c1a63cdca5689020d449d5d
WallStScalper
Very sloppy and violating all sorts of those EW rules 4 below 1 and 4 below 2.
QuantitativeExhaustion
Yes thats the irritation things about EW... but it's a tool among many.. I prefer Harmonic patterns but EW sometimes help
QuantitativeExhaustion
LOL I can feel your frustration coming through my screen... :) But it is the top we are dealing with and maybe wave 4 is just a deep one to take out stops and to drag in longs that think ...YES finally we have vacated the area... and then next morning the exit is blocked due to many running for it.
SP update... 2138 still in play but see notations on chart https://twitter.com/BLawrenceM/status/593786606064140288
3 options in play right now ... chart close update (Notations on chat...: https://twitter.com/BLawrenceM/status/593793286558621696
WallStScalper

correction started, LD over
look4edge
I agree in your court! Nice!
WallStScalper
hopefully market agrees also :) lets see
It's not over yet... wave 4 in SP could be a dbl zig zag https://twitter.com/BLawrenceM/status/593858669974007809
WallStScalper
WallStScalper
also possible, market will tell, i would say close below 2070 would mean LD is over...
I like 2142. When 1981 goes, that's it for the diag
Looks like we are at the end of the triangle..what now? break out or break down? This week will be interesting
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