Well well here we are above the 2022 bear trendline. This is a definitely breakout above the fall line, after the cup and handle.
Plenty of peeps still talking about a further decline to <3600 but I reckon it's time to abandon that notion. Market's going to emerge from bear soon imo. We have inverted H&S formation and cup & handle leading to this breakout.
It is an undeniable fact the price has risen above the falling line and is breaking out. We have MOMO enthusiasm in FAANGs again. Look at NFLX, TSLA, NVDA, AMZN, GOOG... nuts!
It's getting damned bullish again and although pullbacks and retests are expected, it looks like the bears are losing their grip.
Today's GDP 2.9% indicates we are not in recession. It's the economy, stupid! America's business is business, and it's back at work.
We should expect a trendline retest which may come next week. See 'Curious Symmetry' post. Dovish comments from J Powell could spark a massive rally.
Do not stand in front of the train. You will get crushed if you bet against the bulls when the stampeed kicks off. BTFD!
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Go look back at 2018. Huge bear move in winter, Feb > March/April, then breakout and massive rally into July-Aug-Sep. Rally was a heartbreaker and bull trap which gave way to secondary selloff with capitulation in December 2018; the 'Christmas Crash.'
Since Y2k every bear has been a zig-zag. Downnn, up-up-downnnn to lower low. There may be a great rally of 10+% now, followed by a secondary selloff later in 2023, with a lower low in Oct-Dec.
IF this breakout proves to be a fakeout, then we could indeed be headed for a retest of October lows. Risk is ever present and this is risky business!
You have got to keep an eye on this beast, it gobbles up complacent investors and careless speculators.
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I am NOT advocating a full port long position here, lol. Just observing that if trend is changing, that to stand in front of the train will be suicidal. A down draft is always possible and quite likely atm, imo. Trend certainly appears to be changing though. As always, risk is ever present.
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Melted up. Bought a few calls but not full porting when index is obviously pressing up agaisnt monthly resistance. Expect a sharp pullback mon/tues before the FOMC coming off what may well prove to be a double top. Loaded few puts EOD for monday. What an EOD Sell!
SPrice should hold above 3960 for bullish continuation. Re-visit to 4K is a near certainty imo.
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Want to again note pls look at 2018, price broke out, formed a bear flag, then capitulated in Christmas Crash. It was a Zig-Zag! 2000 was another zigzag, same fake break, bear flag, then capitulation. Vicious traps!
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Very Very tricky here now. Careful inspection of the Y2K crash reveals virtually identical rally pattern just before the major crash.
If this is a Fake Break price will plummet on capitulation. Got to watch real closely. If breakout invalidates will get bloody Red.
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Starts to look like a rug pull eh? Expected pullback to TL. If it breaks, invalidated this idea.
So you flipped right near the potential top….time for rug pull
Wait for breakout and close above 4100
DaddySawbucks
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@nzahir, price has already broken out from cup & handle. trend is your friend until the end at the bend. see comments
nzahir
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@DaddySawbucks, The comment contradicts your though of a bad Feb
Or do you mean rally for 5 more days lol
DaddySawbucks
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@nzahir, got to be flex man u watch and see what it's doing and go with that or get killed, u go broke being stubborn. read up then go look at chart and read feb 2018, look at those traps. four month rally then before crash
nzahir
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@DaddySawbucks, So are you saying a drop in Feb this year or not anymore?
If we break out above 4100 (or 4180 with ES), then we have a higher high and that should confirm the bear market is over
DaddySawbucks
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The resistance at 4100 is concerning. Fri PM bearish close was worrisome. Price does not require news or trigger to reset; it can sell for no reason at all. This very insightful post is worth consideration; the rally pattern is eerily similar to Y2K before the crash:
Wait for breakout and close above 4100