Looking deeply into economic cycles Short

S&P 500SP

Description

⋅ Oct 30, 2021 10:26 PM

Above I am sharing monthly charts of SPX.

If you look at the biggest drops where SPX drop below 200 ema on monthly chart. Whenever it retraced back to 4.618 fib level, it fell down sharply.

Based on 1930--32 drop, if you look at the 4.618 retracement level, it came out to be 121. SPX reached 121 in 1973 and suffered a 50% drop

Based on 1973 drop, the 4.618 level is 338, where we got the biggest single day drop known as Black Monday

The third time where SPX fell below is 2009 and based on 4.618, SPX should top around 4675.

I would love to know the opinion of the community and any feedback on this analysis.

Fibonacci SPX (S&P 500 Index)S&P 500 (SPX500)Bearish Patterns

Comments

Drootweek

⋅ Nov 1, 2021 12:33 AM

Why is data from 1932 when they were using paper, no options, radically different market, and 73 where almost no one had access to options, no internet again- relevant?

sirfantastic1

⋅ Nov 6, 2021 6:08 PM

@Drootweek exactly what I was thinking. We can’t just look at technicals and ignore the world around them.

KaisMarket

⋅ Oct 31, 2021 10:20 PM

had 4680 so in the same ball park for shorts

JoeChampion

⋅ Oct 31, 2021 1:51 PM

might still go up, take care.

jmai64

⋅ Oct 31, 2021 1:55 PM

@JoeChampion, Yes. S&P could go to around 5000, surpassing the 4.618, like in 1987.

JoeChampion

⋅ Oct 31, 2021 2:01 PM

@jmai64, yes, i'm long in my trading account from 4200... having my target there!

GreenBunny

⋅ Oct 31, 2021 12:28 PM

Great insight. Please try to point a line from the current price to the 1972 peak price and how almost identical all prices match

jmai64

⋅ Oct 31, 2021 11:02 AM

Phantastic analysis! When do you think S&P will arrive to 4675? In the next 2 weeks or in the next 2 months?

kimstandgraph

⋅ Oct 31, 2021 6:26 AM

Nice idea

DaddySawbucks

⋅ Oct 31, 2021 2:37 AM

brilliant, ty for post!