IMHO, this is the best case for the market (2500). Path is highly conditional but good mental framework
Comment
⋅
If in fact SPX is Big Top then should be followed by 2/3 year bear cycle with targets 1800 as 61.8% FIB retrace and 1580 as 50% retrace which essentially tests the big 2000/2007 breakout levels (35% decline). Reasonable
Comment
⋅
If i am to be correct, then this 2009 Bull market (which could be Wave 1 of higher degree itself) will have compounded at 14.5% pa. Not bad considering that The Great Bull market of Reagan/Clinton compounded at c.16% 1982-2000.
Comment
⋅
On the very short term levels to consider are between 2280s and 2305, so next 2 %. If we reach 2305 within the next few weeks and there is a reversal there, the decline could be very large like 10%. My other indicators are setting up for that but is early still. In this case, the Wave 2 on the conditional path comes in 1Q17 not 3Q17
Comment
⋅
The more i think about it, the more i think that in the ensuing bear cycle which most likely to be 3 instead of 2 years, SPX may wipe out all that was made since the No Taper statement from BB. I think that was a game changer in late 2013. So 1600s are fair game or 35% from 2500
Comment
⋅
Ok, tomorrow is FED meeting announcement, as we are entering the critical levels of 2280s where i have put resistance
Comment
⋅
The scenario where the Wave 2 down is in 1Q17 not 3Q17 as in the path above looks more probable as long as this continues to form as a LD Wave 1.Which no higher than 2286 to be followed by a sharp Wave 2. I guess we should know pretty soon
Comment
⋅
This one appears to be the Bearish Scenario then assuming Tactical Top in March before large correction
Comments
kunsan
⋅
Nice idea. Watch for SPX 2267/9 followed by 2300.
kunsan
⋅
SPX 2267/9 has been exceeded, now watching for 2317 where the recent move from 2080 will be a c=a three wave affair. I like your idea of the rising diagonal 5th wave into 2018, and yes I agree that what we are seeing now could be just a very long wave 1 of that diagonal. Note that the large inverted H&S over the last few years has an ideal target of 2420.
As all the components of a diagonal have to be sequences of threes, somehow your long wave 1 has to develop into a three wave pattern. I wonder if it will be wave 'a' to the 2180 area followed by perhaps another smaller diagonal for wave 'c', so we get wave 'a' to 2180 followed by 'b' then a rising diagonal for 'c' all this just being wave 1 of a much longer term diagonal pattern.