Occasionally markets will have turns related to the Fibonacci sequence. (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, - to infinity) Adding 144 trading days to the January 20, 2016 SPX bottom targets August 15, 2016 as a possible SPX turn day. Adding 34 trading days to the June 27, 2016 SPX bottom also targets August 15, 2016 as a possible SPX turn day. Prior to the June 27th bottom, are three smaller examples of the same phenomenon. Adding 21 trading days to the April 20th peak targets the May 19th bottom. Adding 13 trading days to the May 19th bottom targets the June 8th top. Adding 13 trading days to the June 8th peak targets the June 27th bottom.
As of the close on August 19, 2016 the high made on August 15th has held. If this phenomenon continues there could be an SPX bottom on August 25th which is 8 trading days after August 15th. Or perhaps September 1st which is 13 trading days after August 15th. September 1st also happens to a new moon, occasionally markets turn on new or full moons. If there is a decline into either of those dates it would probably be about the size of the June 8 - June 27 correction which was 128.90 SPX points. If the next decline has a Fibonacci ratio of 1/1, subtracting 128.90 from the August 15 peak of 2193.8 targets SPX 2064.90 as a potential bottom. The .618 Fibonacci ratio of 128.90 is 79.60. 2193.80 - 79.60 = SPX 2114.20 as another potential area for the next bottom. Watch the dates August 25th and September 1st, if the SPX is near 2114 or 2064 on either of those days there is a very good chance a bottom could be made.
Comments
cocawater
⋅
Also, I have a question that why you do not count days between Feb. 11 2016 and Apr. 20th 2016? Thanks
markrivest
⋅
Hi
Great question. The move up from 2/11/16 to 4/20/16 in trading days was not a number within the Fibonacci sequence. The consecutive moves up and down since 4/20/16 implies the next move down
could also be measured using one of the numbers in the Fibonacci sequence, 8 trading days or 13 trading days are the most likely numbers to expect. All markets at sometime have movements that are measured
by the Fibonacci sequence. If you discover this phenomenon it is a great tool to catch market turns.
Mark
cocawater
⋅
I appreciate the answer, but do you think it is too subjective since you really are looking for 11,13 numbers like this. However, 14 TD are also trading days but it won't be included since it is not a fibonacci number? This is the confusion got me when I saw astro-fin at the first place. For example, i counted in this WTI chart, but I have no idea how to continue? I know my question is too basic, and I really appreciate your time. Also, I just sent a message to you... Thank you.
Hi
I don't know anything about astro-fin. If a market has a movement that can be counted as a Fibonacci number say perhaps 13 it either turns on that day or if there is no turn it didn't work.
There is no leeway or fudging. This is the most precise time cycle method you can use. If perhaps the market moves beyond trading day 13 it leaves open the possibility that the next
number in the Fibonacci sequence which is 21 could see a market turn on that day. If there is no turn on day 21 again the method did not work.
At some point a market will not turn on a Fibonacci number. The phenomenon is sporadic and there is no way of knowing when it will end. So far since April 20th the SPX has had four moves in which it did work, so we need to keep an eye open to see if it keeps working. Using the Fibonacci sequence is just one of many tools you need to be using, it needs to be used in conjunction with other timing techniques - such as the potential lunar cycle on 9/1/16. You also need to be using various momentum indicators and have a methodology to determine support and resistance areas.
I will have follow up posts. Pease follow along, I will have more information not only about the near term prospects for the SPX but also longer term as well.
Mark
cocawater
⋅
Hi Mark,
Thank you very much for the info !!
cocawater
⋅
Really really really thank you so much for the explanation as I actually just start learning all this....