Morning Notes 07/11/19-Gary
Trading Environment-Short Term: Current Environment-Bearish
have been all over the place for the past 2 days. The one common theme for these moves is the Fed. Yesterday Powell came out with how bad things are and he will cut in July (basically what he told the markets) and today the CPI came in hot and the street is trying to figure out how much/many rate cuts will take place after July. The CPI numbers this morning sent the /es from +9 to +2 and they have crept back up to +5 as I type this update. I have said this before and will say it again, the street is pricing in perfection here. If the Fed does one rate cut and is done, we could see the spx back down near the 2400 level, the 1+ BP is what is being priced in right now. We are in some interesting times here!
The spx bulls have to push price above 2998 and then 3004 to try for 3010 and that will have to be done with divergences and overbought technicals in place. The bears have to push price below 2989 for a test of 2981 and then 2973. They have the technicals on their side, but have yet to push price through any important support levels and until they get the spx below the 2963/2952 , the bulls will hang around.
Today range for the spx 2998 high and 2989 low. A break of 2998 the SPX should try for the spx should try for 3004/3010. A push below 2989 we could see 2981/2973. G-
SPX CASH 60 minute technicals
Resistance Levels: R1-2998 R2-3004 R3 3010
Support Levels: S1-2989 S2-2981 S3 2973
Trending Pivots: Higher
Can The Stock Market Be Predicted? Below are a series of predictions we made from September. Take a look and you will see, yes they can and nobody does it better than Woody Dorsey!
February 14, 2019:
Nominal tactical weakness has been due into 2/22. Now, to reiterate, “nominal tactical weakness” is not a “Sell” signal. It is just the timing profile. Again, as noted: “The Interim profile is still .” The December Low was excessive, and the rebound is becoming excessive too. If a corrective range is forming, another or, several 2-3 day declines may occur over the next two weeks. Now, the next nominal trading high is due near 4/10ish. That does not mean stocks are just going higher from here to there by any means. It makes the most tactical sense for stocks to correct or to become congested for a while. • Near Term Diagnosis: Sentiment is 83% today following a relatively rare 97% yesterday. These are clearly cautionary. • Interim Term Diagnosis: The Interim Trend still allows for recovery rallies, by fits and starts, into at least early April or perhaps even into June.
10/16/18 Sentiment Timing Report: MARKET TIMING: A tactical trading low was ideally due last week and came in on 10/11 synchronous with the 0% . This week is messy with an upside bias due next week. Given the expansion of the range, it may all amount to not very much: “I still foresee a notable relief rally in November. That may be followed by more weakness than anyone expects into year end.” The code is for a nominal Recovery near 10/26 and, post-Election, engineer a decent upside episode into Thanksgiving followed by perhaps surprisingly robust downside in December. These codes may morph and become more, or less defined, so be aware of that. These are tricky times and “loco” maneuvers can occur.
09/13/18 Sentiment Timing Report: MARKET TIMING: A failure was expected in August. The expected correction is profiled to last into near 9/25ish but, “This Fall may see trading opportunities both ways.” How the market behaves into 9/25ish there will tell us all a great deal about the larger context. So far from the 8/29 High, there were 7 days down which have been followed by 5 days up. While it feels like the market is strong it really has been in a sideways price/time pattern. What fits best now is for another 6-8 day decline which would make it a somewhat symmetrical compound correction into the preferred low date. Under that pattern, today would be the last upside day.
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