Look out below. So fragile now. Anything will break it IMO.
Can it still get a lower high? Ofc. Who knows, bad place to be long IMO.
Indicators all stuck in the middle, anyone's guess for Friday.
Should it gap down and leave an island top, would be game over.
Comment
⋅
The gap at 4612 will likely fill within a week IMO. Be ready.
Comment
⋅
Another monster gap. Will it fade, or gap n go? Always so chancy... bad news is good news. you had to buy EOD and cross fingers all nite to catch this fgs. nuts.
Comment
⋅
Gaps straight back to the PRZ. Didn't try to fade this gap, might fade EOD, might not close today. Fluctuates wildly in open, pure risk IMO
Comment
⋅
Watched the fade thinking, 'You coulda shorted this!' but it didn't close the gap before the bullup came, did flip some calls in there. Sometimes the gap up from oversold won't close right away... can't bet on it.
Trade active
⋅
QQQ did close the gap finally, within 0.03c of prior close it bounced, bought the bounce, closed and now it's weak again, back at the last close. SPX still hasn't filled, DJI holding it up. Might sell more, might just hang, no clear direction. Back in cash.
Comment
⋅
Flipping in and out of cross-strike trades, caught some rally but it was disappointing, going to close it feels as if stuck at the 4700 resistance, just stalled.
Tried power hour plays twice, made some, gave it back for a push. Unless it bulls in last quarter, nothing to be had.
Certainly looks like a short entry zone IMO, not going over the weekend though.
Comment
⋅
Looks like a weak runup near EOD, worth about ten pips. IMO can't get over 4700, I'm sure they will try again Monday, might pump it and gap up over.
IMO we had exhaustion gap today.
Comment
⋅
Well it came up in last quarter, had some calls and closed em, even flipped a few puts around the strike, space needle came at 3:55, lol. good weekend!
Comment
⋅
Gosh how the damned thing fluctuates! I wonder whether it will give us a smaller H&S, 'crown' on this right shoulder?! Would not be real comfy taking longs here...
As much as this makes sense, I'm thinking market does not make it so easy for people to mark tops. A big retracement to scare everyone, gives a sharp bounce and VIX down to allow people to buy puts cheap and then declare top? Seems ideal.
digicool
⋅
The gap fill to 4612 for ES and to 15880 for NQ is definitely coming possibly tomorrow or before next week quad witching.
rrturtles2
⋅
@digicool as much as I want the gap down.. I have an unease feeling that this is a two way trap, with a wonderful setup for cheap calls and a run up. what I had not considered until now was the impact of next week's vix expiry. A hard drop now would send vix, which is already elevated, rocketing. The payouts on puts and those short vix would be quite and event, especially heading into the fomc cycle. All of this seems unlikely to produce the cataclysmic type drop feared. instead I wonder if there will be a return to small caps so to fade mega caps gracefully without disturbing the indices. suppose we'll find out soon enough. good luck
digicool
⋅
Good commentary all day. ES > 4700, ATH or prior ATH is all but certain by Tues day AM. So we go from HS to double top?
DaddySawbucks
⋅
@digicool, Today may have been the top of a shoulder, we don't know yet. been reading J Murphy Tech Analysis of Financial Markets; he observes: The best known and most trustworthy of all reversal patterns, the H&S can occasionally act as a consolidation, rather than a reversal pattern; when this happens, it is the exception rather than the rule." So, H&S CAN be a continuation pattern, if the market pushes higher it does not invalidate the pattern, which is clearly apparent. That would just be bullish as Hell.
gdleibow
⋅
Projecting extreme bias here. Naturally there would be resistance after a big runup at 4700. Nothing about this move indicated any problems yet. NOTHING! Like expecting TULIP prices to crash in the first 3 years of absurdity. Holiday seasonality is way too string especially with extreme sentiment and money pouring in. GameStop anyone? Bitcoin? When the roulette wheel stops? A strong finish today spells JUMP next week. Like praising trump for 5 years culminating into a coup attempt and becoming even more popular. irrational exuberance can last till we get so exhausted we give up and join the fun.
gdleibow
⋅
TULIP prices went up for 3 years. What is your point? Holiday cheer will not allow any deep drop here. Massive long immense bubbles like this one takes patience ad extreme elevated absurdity to see cracks. This market will not drop before holiday drunkenness is over.
digicool
⋅
Played long overnight, short at the open and flipped back to long here to see where she goes. I'm along @rrturtles2 here thinking the PUTs get killed by Tuesday AM and then risk positioning happens until expiry.
DaddySawbucks
⋅
@digicool, GJ! Grats. So risky to hold anything at night now, totally unpredictable. bad news is good again!
mjcpaull
⋅
Hi D. Tend to agree - the price action looks very fragile / struggling to make headway to the upside and vols are terribly low. My view - bounce to 4700 was short cover rally with the repo window closing 10th Dec - having said this, remain of view that price action will remain in the higher quartile until end-yr / 31st Dec valuations playing a role here - downward spiral in short order early in the New Year - looking for circa 10% - 15% from current levels by end-March. Slowly accumulating March & June puts accordingly. Small short currently even though view is as above - just in case we get a snap to the downside, have small position to capture ...Just a view
A big retracement to scare everyone, gives a sharp bounce and VIX down to allow people to buy puts cheap and then declare top? Seems ideal.