2011 22% decline constituted a bear market. The current bull market therefore is about 2 1/4 years old. This de-emphasizes the 5 year trend and emphasizes the 1 year and 2 1/4 year uptrend. This is significant since the current bull market and 1 year slope are higher than the 5 year trend. This indicates a higher upper channel is possible, e.g., 2000 by mid-year and 2100 by year end.
Comments
SimGlenn
⋅
Curtis - It looks like the 1875-1925 range will test that channel crossover. Looking longer term...
The mid-year (June), multi-year upper channel will be about 2000, and the lower channel at that point will be about 1750. That means the projected mid-year upside risk is therefore 200 points, and the downside risk is 50, from these levels. I like those odds very much. Expect one or two more mini-corrections (5-7%) between now and then. Any substantial break in trend (2-3%) on the upside could trigger a 10% correction to pull toward mid to lower channel.
Regards - Glenn
CurtisM
⋅
Glenn thanks for doing that. Now I see what you've been talking about. Pretty clear that a decisive break of one channel line leads to a challenge of the next in line. It'll be interesting to see what happens when the upper channel on your 21/4 year chart is hit again.
Thanks
SimGlenn
⋅
Triple multi-year channel intersect was July 2013.
The mid-year (June), multi-year upper channel will be about 2000, and the lower channel at that point will be about 1750. That means the projected mid-year upside risk is therefore 200 points, and the downside risk is 50, from these levels. I like those odds very much. Expect one or two more mini-corrections (5-7%) between now and then. Any substantial break in trend (2-3%) on the upside could trigger a 10% correction to pull toward mid to lower channel.
Regards - Glenn