Between the 2008 great financial housing crisis, the end of the dotcom bubble in the year 2000, the 1970s stagflation recession, and the great depression of 1929 all have one thing in common. The market retraced at least 50% from it's peak. I personally believe the US economy is in conditions for a recession that will at least sink 50% or more if we were to compare to past indicators and technical conditions of a recession.
Just my opinion take it with a grain of salt. At the end of the day past is no indicator of the future. However history doesn't repeat itself it often rhymes. There's been a lot of rhymes I'm seeing. Much peace, love, health, and wealth!
Thanks for your analysis! Regarding jobs vs Careers, I agree that the haves and have-nots have shifted farther apart. This has been going on for some time now, think Reaganomics of the 1980s. The whole trickle down theory. Problem is except for a few sectors such as InfoTech, workers have not had the demand pull required to raise their wages adequately, think shift of manufacturing to China and other countries, and new tech such as robotics etc. The rich tend to hoard rather than let the money roll downhill. Societal unrest is surely a factor when the cupboards are bare. Longer term problem is related to the marginal propensity to consume for the economy. The 1% cannot consume at a high enough rate to make up for the loss in purchasing power for the rest of us. I am not a socialist by the way. It was a capitalist Henry Ford who raised wages for workers so that workers that produced cars could actually afford to purchase them. As regards to the stock market it is mostly a wealth transfer mechanism from the not so rich to the rich. I love the new discount brokers who advertise that you can start investing with as little as a few dollars to start! The majority of market activity is not to raise capital and put it towards productive use. Most of the time the Fed has tried to manufacture a soft landing it has not worked imo. The pendulum swings too far in one direction. Will this time be different? I don't know. Let's see. I think we ultimately bottom around 3400 this time if we're lucky! Will the Fed pivot to some form of QE? It is likely but not until Q4 at the earliest. In the mean time workers can enjoy working 2 or even 3 jobs to make the mortgage/rent. All imo. GLTA!
peacefuljustin
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@TraderV123, Thank you so much for watching! And I completely agree with everything you're saying. To simply put it our current system corroding before our very eyes and no longer benefits the average worker. The wealth gap has never in history of capitalism been more grotesque than it is now and it's only getting worse. Jobs that pay $15 an hour and gas prices coming down $1.00 isn't helping anybody.
DaddySawbucks
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all good but clearly we are NOT in recession since unemployment is better than ever. so it wont crash, man
carefulRhino97368
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@DaddySawbucks, The unemployment will get wacked by the federal reserve after it raises the interest rates as it should. When that happens demand will drop and so will the inflation. Oh and by the way by that time the S&P500 will be somewhere in 3000s, if not lower.
Even though unemployment has fallen that still doesn't change the fact that many people are priced out, living pay check to pay check, indebted, and broke. The vast majority of these "jobs" that have been created are just jobs at the end of the day and not careers that will enable you to thrive financially. Today in America working a full time job simply isn't enough to afford the cost of living. The federal minimum wage is still $7.25 an hour, housing prices and rental prices have drastically out paced wage growth, inflation has out paced wage growth, and interest rates are rising aggressively which only makes it more expensive for people to buy homes, cars, or start a businesses.
We're definitely in some very odd times but something has to give in the coming year. Everybody can feel our current economy is becoming completely unsustainable.