Ralph Elliot speaking from beyond the grave.... Typically speaking, wave 4 retraces 23-38%. We are on an extended wave 5 of wave 3. Those 2 rectangles are measurements: 1.618 x wave 1, 2.618 x wave 1. Wave 3 typically terminates around 1.618 wave 1 (watch that 3000 area. It may not even reach it, but if it did and hit the top of the 2.618 box, that's a sell all day. I could go down to the last wave and explain it better but you guys, but you don't pay me enough... Just kidding, I'm lazy. Commodities are down. Look at Silver, Platinum, Natural Gas even. If stock market goes into wave 4 retrace, money will be moved to safer investments perhaps. In fact, I feel that I have pretty much all markets sewn up at this point.
That's true, But its price action looks like it is in a possible running flat (usually when they look like that they are). Looking at the wave analysis and measuring and counting things out, if it was to drop back soon to produce a running flat, that could become an ending diagonal at this point in the wave pattern. The companies performance does matter, but if large banks from around the world start pulling their money out due to the math of the chart, that can have a serious effect. I certainly don't want a recession, but the math is there for a retrace, could take some time in a long choppy diagonal. The reason I say the math is there: Look at commodities, such as silver, platinum, and Gold. Look at what they did during the 2008 drop in stocks (which was just to finish out the wave 2 correction which began Y2K)..... The commodities shot up. Silver, Platinum, and Gold, are all on obvious "B" waves of a correction that has been incomplete, even though everyone sees them as in a downtrend... There is an extremely high probability of them pulling up for a "C" wave which could even be a reversal wave. I don't anticipate them going back up to the major highs, but to pull up. It seems very obvious to me... with that said, this is some high time frame stuff and would take some patience and good understanding of wave theory and price action, along with capital to execute this scenario properly. I'm waiting to see what kind of price action the SandP gives and how it measures out. Dow Jones already hit the 1.618 extension. Can a wave 3 extend past that extension? Yes, but there is a lot I am and will be factoring in, in this analysis. There is also the aspect of time fibonacci and in relation to the crash of '29 and 2000-2008 but I will not get into that. Can they keep extending.. Yes, but they will have to pull back, and by they, I mean the US stocks and commodities markets