Using Median Lines As a Trading Tool An Empirical Study - I

S&P 500SP

Description

⋅ Sep 3, 2022 11:36 AM

The Andrews Pitchfork takes three (consecutive) swings: ABC, and forms a median line by bisecting BC from A

80% of the time price will return to the median line from the C pivot

Of that 80%: price will reverse at the median line around 30% of the time

IF price reverses at the median line it will reach the upper 1 SD parallel 80% of the time

C U ATH

🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

NOT TARDING ADVICE

All credit to Mr Greg Fisher for these stats and all his work on market geometry

Comment

⋅ Sep 3, 2022 11:37 AM

scholar.google.com/scholar?q=related:GembXnfso4QJ:scholar.google.com/&scioq=&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5

Comment

⋅ Sep 3, 2022 11:39 AM

Trend Analysis SPX (S&P 500 Index)gregfisher grains Contains image

Comments

orange369

⋅ Sep 3, 2022 4:48 PM

nice work...thank you
second chart (1W), 70% probability market at ~3300
pairs: 4800-3800, 4600-3600, 4300-3300?

Great_Reset_Investing

⋅ Sep 3, 2022 8:23 PM

@orange369, there are some logical points to think about. Following the ath it was either going to bounce at 36xx or go to the bottom of the fork. We did bounce but we didn’t break the downtrend yet. It certainly didn’t gap through the median which would imply crash. IF we break the downtrend there’s 80% probability of ath…

orange369

⋅ Sep 3, 2022 9:11 PM

@Great_Reset_Investing,
I appreciate your commentary, but sometimes lines do not draw themselves, context is a must.
Nothing new, "don't fight the Fed" applies up or down. Fed Powell drew the line down on August 25 (Jackson Hole Economic Symposium- watch the 9 minute speech), literally first time (first time) in 2-3 years where the Fed spoke and market fell. Market going up= loosening financial conditions, not happening near term.

Great_Reset_Investing

⋅ Sep 3, 2022 9:33 PM

@orange369, it’s physics I’m not drawing lines lol. There isn’t a single trend line in this idea. And all those percentages are validated. If price hasn’t reversed here at the median line it will retest it and that retest is likely to fail. The only target then is around 2400. Let’s see if physics or ‘macro’ wins. If it’s macro then u better hope jpow makes like Tim Allen… Check my old ideas… I’m most certainly not a bull... (Clue is in the name)