S&P500 (SPX) has been on a correction mode since the week of July 24, completing 13 straight weeks (91 days) of pulling-back without a 50% retracement. As you can see on the charts above, which are on the 1W time-frame, this is the strongest such correction since October 03 2011, which stretched for 21 weeks.
Even the recent Inflation Bear Cycle of 2022 had three separate correction phases of no more than 11 weeks. In total since 2011 there have been 12 such corrections (including the current), so we can realize just how long this one has gone without at least a 50% Fib retracement. This may indicate that potentially we are at or near the bottom. On the downside, it did break and close this week below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the next Support in line is the 1W MA200 orange trend-line) at 3940.
Do you think it's time to rebound to the 0.5 Fib or the index 'needs' to technically reach the 1W MA200 first?
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Great analysis! There is a high probability of short-term bounce but the longer-term downtrend does seem entrenched.
Aghughu
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Really educational content. Thanks for sharing
iaretheanimal
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If historical credit card deliquency rates are any indicator, there's room for at least another push up during the fanatical shopping season at the end of the year, and plenty of profit to book before the consumer is completely tapped out and starts missing payments. I wouldn't be surprised if we get another upswing into 1st quarter of 2024. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS
we might get a juicy bounce from here!!!