Below you'll find a short analysis on the S&P500 based on a monthly timeframe.
A lot of important cycles are lining up in the end of the year / beginning of the new year (half NOV 2017 / JAN 2018). Possibily this marks a turning point for the markets to set the final high after which a major correction can take place.
Targets for the correction are: * 2112 (WaveIII) * 1800 (Wave IV) * 1690 (Red line --> see analysis of Edwin van den Berg) * 1530 (High of Tech bubble 2000 and Real Estate Bubble 2007) * 1085 (Wave II)
Notice the (Bearish) Divergence between the AD line and price. (small participation in uptrend)
RSI is in overbought area, this however, does not have to indicate something in a strong trend.
"America U.S.A."
"I" would like to share a few "Wave Patterns" with "YOU"
Just remember "ONE THING" --- "Mr President, Donald Trump" --- "DID NOT" Create This Mess.
One question "I" ask myself. --- ? When the "Big Top" happens what path will or could "WE" take ? --- On the downside.
"A Few Examples" that "COULD" happen shown below. "I" will not post CHARTS you can look it up on your own.
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a. = Crude Oil = Starting Date --- August, 2005 to January, 2009 low. --- "Monthly Chart"
b. = CTS = Starting Date --- October, 1997 to October, 2002 low --- "Monthly Chart"
c = F = Starting Date --- August, 1987 to November, 2008 low --- "Monthly Chart"
d = HBAN = Starting Date --- July, 1986 to February, 2009 low --- "Monthly Chart"
e = RIG = Starting Date --- November, 1997 to "Todays Date, 2017" --- "Monthly Chart"
f = TRC = Starting Date --- December, 1979 to December, 1994 low --- "Monthly Chart"
g = FCX = Starting Date --- February, 2006 to December, 2008 low --- "Monthly Chart"
h = FOSL = Starting Date --- October, 2004 to "Todays Date, 2017" --- "Monthly Chart"
i = Dow Industrials = Starting Date --- November, 1916 to July, 1932 low --- "Monthly Chart"
j = Gold Chart = Starting Date --- March, 2016 to December, 2016 low --- ( "Weekly Chart" )
k = DXY = Starting Date --- March, 2015 to "Todays Date, 2017" --- "Monthly Chart"
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"I" am just showing some "Wave Patterns" --- That "I" Think Could Happen --- ? What Do You Think ?
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"Look" At The --- Dow Industrials --- SP500 --- SP100 = "Monthly Charts"
Starting Date --- "DOW IND" = January, 2000 to "Todays Date"
Starting Date --- "SP500" = March, 2000 to "Todays Date"
Starting Date --- "SP100" = March, 2000 to "Todays Date"
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"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves"
By "Abraham Lincoln"
This is for "Information Only" --- "Education Only" --- This "Is NOT" a Buy or Sell Recommendation.
Thanks for listening,
"One Eye Jim"
jeffreyjim
⋅
The "Dow Ind. 30 E-Mini"
"October 2007"
a = Small Traders = Plus 4,520 Contracts
b = Large Traders = Plus 2,430 Contracts
c = "Smart Money" = Minus 6,950 Contracts
"October 2017" --- ("10 yrs Later")
a = Small Traders = Plus 4,874 Contracts
b = Large Traders = Plus 80,902 Contracts
c = "Smart Money" = Minus 85,776 Contracts
This is for information only. --- "Education Only"
"One Eye Jim"
jeffreyjim
⋅
I" Think
"The U.S. Dollar" --- Is on its way to below "The March, 2008 Low"
Sooner or later this may hurt the other "Markets" --- "Stock Market Indexes Included"
Some may "Explode To The Upside".
jeffreyjim
⋅
"I" think there are only "Three Good Wave Counts Left".
a = The one shown above and two others.
b = The one shown above and "ONE" of the other two are of "Equal Value" --- They top at the same time.
They should top soon. (Before the end of ? 2017 ?) --- Only time will tell.
c = The other Wave Count should top before the end of "2020" --- ("2019" is the best year for this to happen.)
If "Wave One" Ended at the "April 2010 High" and "Wave Two Bottomed at the "July 2010 Low".
That means we may be topping "Wave Three" --- With "Wave 4" and "Wave 5" left to complete.
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? "I" wonder what "THEY" will "NAME" the next "Recession" --- "Depression" ?
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This is for information only. "Education Only"
"One Eye Jim"
jeffreyjim
⋅
"I" also believe in the "Rule of Alternation" --- "I" learned about this from "Rober R. Prechter" many years ago.
It does not always work. --- "The Big Question Is" --- ? Will it work this time ?
a. = 2000 was a top.
b. = 2007 was a top. --- If we top soon "I" think it could only be the top of "Wave Three" from the "2009" --- "Great Recession Low"
With "Wave 4" and "Wave 5" left to complete. A 4 yr cycle low is due next yr "2018" that would work for "Wave 4" to complete. (Bottom)
c. = "2009" was a bottom. --- "2019" will be the 90 yr "Anniversary 1929 Crash" --- ? Will 2019 be the "Big Top" ?
A 10 yr cycle "High" is due this yr "2017" --- This is the first time "1907 to Date" it did not top before the end of "October"
? Will it top before the end of the yr ? --- "2017" --- "I" think there is a 66.7% or better chance it will.
This is for information only. "Education Only"
"One Eye Jim"
jeffreyjim
⋅
These are some cycles topping. That "I" know of.
A. = Starting date = May1, 2017 to later than the end of "2020".
B. = 4 yr --- 10 yr --- 20 yr --- 40 yr --- ? 90 yr ? = "90 yr Anniversary 1929 Crash" = "2019"
C. = 4 yr cycle low due next yr. --- "2018"
D. = "1932" --- "The Great Depression Low in the Dow" --- Plus 90 yrs = "2022" --- ? Will this be the next major low in the markets ?
E. = Other cycles due to bottom in "2022" = 4 yr --- 10 yr --- 20 yr --- 40 yr --- ? 90 yr ?
This is for "Information" only. --- "Education"
What do you think about this ?
alesxs
⋅
Hello!
when do you expect such a global fall?
jeffreyjim
⋅
@alesxs, "Believe It Or Not" --- it has already started. "WE" just do not see it yet in the "Major Indexes".
a = Look at what is going on around the --- " World " --- yesterday --- today and tomorrow and the next day.
b = Look at what is going on in "AMERICA U.S.A." --- Need "I" say more ?
It is very, very sad that "We can not see it yet". When "WE" do it will be to late.
"America U.S.A." --- is very, very broken. "I" do not think we can fix it in time.
Thanks for listening,
"One Eye Jim"
jeffreyjim
⋅
Do you think the "2009 Great Recession Low" will be taken out by "2022" ? --- ( plus or minus a little --- "One Year" ?) --- (.618 Ret. Min.)
"I" think 66.7% or better this will happen.
What do you think ?
jouke.hartman
⋅
@jeffreyjim, good question! It is a possibility, however on the way down there are some major support levels (targets in the analysis). If those levels break to the downside, there is a chance that we see lows comparable to '09. In the market crashes of '02 and '09 the downward move was +- 50% and +- 58% respectively. if we take the 58% level for the possible correction ahead it would lead to +- 1100. Or support of wave II. But then again, support has to break to the downside.
"I" would like to share a few "Wave Patterns" with "YOU"
Just remember "ONE THING" --- "Mr President, Donald Trump" --- "DID NOT" Create This Mess.
One question "I" ask myself. --- ? When the "Big Top" happens what path will or could "WE" take ? --- On the downside.
"A Few Examples" that "COULD" happen shown below. "I" will not post CHARTS you can look it up on your own.
======================================================================================================
a. = Crude Oil = Starting Date --- August, 2005 to January, 2009 low. --- "Monthly Chart"
b. = CTS = Starting Date --- October, 1997 to October, 2002 low --- "Monthly Chart"
c = F = Starting Date --- August, 1987 to November, 2008 low --- "Monthly Chart"
d = HBAN = Starting Date --- July, 1986 to February, 2009 low --- "Monthly Chart"
e = RIG = Starting Date --- November, 1997 to "Todays Date, 2017" --- "Monthly Chart"
f = TRC = Starting Date --- December, 1979 to December, 1994 low --- "Monthly Chart"
g = FCX = Starting Date --- February, 2006 to December, 2008 low --- "Monthly Chart"
h = FOSL = Starting Date --- October, 2004 to "Todays Date, 2017" --- "Monthly Chart"
i = Dow Industrials = Starting Date --- November, 1916 to July, 1932 low --- "Monthly Chart"
j = Gold Chart = Starting Date --- March, 2016 to December, 2016 low --- ( "Weekly Chart" )
k = DXY = Starting Date --- March, 2015 to "Todays Date, 2017" --- "Monthly Chart"
==========================================================================================
"I" am just showing some "Wave Patterns" --- That "I" Think Could Happen --- ? What Do You Think ?
==========================================================================================
"Look" At The --- Dow Industrials --- SP500 --- SP100 = "Monthly Charts"
Starting Date --- "DOW IND" = January, 2000 to "Todays Date"
Starting Date --- "SP500" = March, 2000 to "Todays Date"
Starting Date --- "SP100" = March, 2000 to "Todays Date"
==================================================================
"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves"
By "Abraham Lincoln"
This is for "Information Only" --- "Education Only" --- This "Is NOT" a Buy or Sell Recommendation.
Thanks for listening,
"One Eye Jim"