noahkeene
Long

S & P Breakout incoming 3,300 BLOW OFF TOP INCOMING

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Looking for a breakout of this rising wedge to new ALL TIME HIGHS. My target is 3,300 or close to it then going to close my position or keep a tight stop. Do all time highs in the S and P make sense with the Global slow down, manufacturing recession, Dow Transport crashing, isolationism around the globe, China economy slowing.... no, but greedy investors are looking ahead to stimulus, money printing, dollar devaluation to save us all. Will it work? Probably not, but that greedy money on wall street does not care. Take there money, BLOW OFF TOP INCOMING
You are completely right about the break out. Unfortunately it is not a Blow Off Top. Is Signals the End of the BEAR MARKET from June 2018 until September 2019. The 20 percent rise to 3300, signals the start of a NEW BULL MARKET, and the next stop is 3850. You were right about the break out though. Good job.If you sell, you will look back in a couple of years at Bubble S&P 5000, and wonder what happened...
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noahkeene drchelsea1
@drchelsea1, I only actively trade 10% of my retirement account. I will be in the S&P for another 30 years! I am very bullish on the S&P. Hopefully S&P 20,000 by then!
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Interesting somewhat contrarian view you have shown here. Certainly anything is possible, and more certainly, people have benefited reasonably well off the last decade from buying the dips however due to deteriorating economic data around the world and significant and widespread geopolitical (social) issues around the world, I see little reason for the market to test ATHs.

Two major things to watch is there are now 3 consecutive and descending peaks in all US indices. For example; the SPX has peaked at ~3027, ~3020 and ~3009. Typically, a triple descending peak is extremely bearish. Further, while I am not a proponent of the RSI as it is oversimplified, it does tell the story over the long-run. In this case, the RSI has been under divergence over the last 12-14 months and falling after every additional 'top'.

Technicals have been shot in this last run and I see little chance of ATHs unless a FULL USA-China deal happened within the next month (which isn't happening). Rate cuts are already baked into this market and will provide no additional buffers to the market UNLESS Powell begins cutting 50bps or clearly says he is entering a long-term easing cycle.

There must be a close above 3009 for a potential blow-off top. With the latest Brexit news, I wouldn't be surprised for the US indices to fall 1% early next week perhaps beginning on Monday.
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@zSplit, My opinion is that Brexit is not going to sink the markets come Monday. If anything more money will come into the US market for safety. When I short this market is when I see a spike in US Bond rates. When interest rates spike uncontrollably that is going to be the signal for a market crash. If we do get a China/US trade deal it will most likley be a sell the news event after an initial pump.
+1 Reply
drchelsea1 noahkeene
@noahkeene, So sell the news, we shall see tomorrow. I predict a massive breakout from S&P 3300 to 3850. Stay tuned. You guys were on to something, just the wrong something. New Bull Market. You just didn't go and look too far back in the market and do analysis. Too short-sighted. See you at 5000 S&P in a year or so, when Trump takes his second term, and the Bubble is in FULL SWING.
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@zSplit, How did that work out?
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noahkeene drchelsea1
@drchelsea1, Are you kidding? A comment I made 3 months ago? I have not sold anything yet, but might take some profit. Go spam someone else's comment section.
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Nice analysis. Do you think the Brexit will have an impact on stocks next week?
+1 Reply
noahkeene tobz2006
@tobz2006, in my opinion a messy Brexit will have a short term positive impact on American equity markets. International money will flow into the United States as a run to safety. Bad news like this will reinforce the feds excuse to further expand printing money, lower rates and devalue the dollar, all short term bullish for stocks
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tobz2006 noahkeene
@noahkeene, thnx for the answer! i have been following you here on trading view for quite a while and really appreciate your opinion and the work your doing. thank you very much from germany. have a nice weekend!
+1 Reply
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