When in doubt, zoom out. Sometimes we miss the forest for the trees when we fail to take a step back. Open your mind to a broader range of data. There's simple math working behind every trend, of every candle, on every timeframe. Make a habit of studying those monthly candles every so often. It will allow you to see things you previously hadn't.
Take a look at the wavetrend indicator at the bottom and the three touches that have occurred: 1st - Jan 2018 2nd - Sept 2018 3rd - Jan 2020 4th - in process?
I believe this month (jan 21) and the next (Feb 21) are critical to this trend and whether or not we blow through into a parabolic rage or we have another correction. Take note, however of divergences on monthly timeframes by scrolling out and looking back at the tech bubble as well as 2014-2015. Bearish divergences are worth paying attention to but it does not mean that the market will respond in the way you think. There may be a loss of momentum but price can still creep up for months or years.
I tend to think we'll have some volatility this month as well as the next but I'm not so sure I'd call a top here. We can creep up for months or years or even blast upward into a hyper bubble. I have other tools and indicators I use to look for major tops but I'm not so sure that I see a major top yet.
Let me know your thoughts and where you think price is going!
Comment
⋅
better shot of that lower indicator
Comment
⋅
Here are those other two examples of bearish divergences on monthly candles... be careful in thinking "oh, it's going to crash now". It's not impossible.. it just shows we have some math working in favor of a correction due to weakness and loss of momentum.
I'll say though, the precision of the 4x touch of the one from 2018-2021 has some incredible precision so it'll be interesting to see what happens this month as well as the next.
Comment
⋅
I'll share this chart from another idea I published not long ago. It's a shot of the dow jones on weekly candles. Take note of the bearish divergence being pressed RIGHT NOW. The price action of tomorrow & Friday are massively important. The close of this weekly candle will make or break this trend. Pivotal and decisive moment next few days!
Comment
⋅
Hmm, is this where we are?
Comment
⋅
we need to see a pivot now or there's something else at work here
Comment
⋅
as far as monthly candles go, it'll take the close of this month and the next to make it clear whether or not this trend is respected a 4th time.
Comment
⋅
I'm watching this upper line
Comment
⋅
Here's my custom indicator for viewing s&p stocks above their 200 and 50 day MA. This includes a set of averages that can be helpful in seeing the bigger picture.. I find that it requires me several minutes of staring at it to get anything useful out of it.. but it is certainly useful.
Comment
⋅
Nothing new.. same place. What's important, though, is this is the last week of the month. The close of this monthly candle should tell us an important story... market direction. It's a very important week and month. The little hiccup I observed today in market was interesting...
Comment
⋅
dow futures renko. Let's some some resistance. Come on.
Comment
⋅
textbook
Comment
⋅
Comment
⋅
February..oh what will this month bring about? Watch this monthly candle-it's make or break time. There's a lot of time for a broad range
Comment
⋅
There are many similarities to the February 2020 monthly candle (green circle). I don't expect a repeat of what we saw a year ago although anything is possible. We're half way through this month so let's see what happens
I find this quite agreeable.!
Seems the market just need some sort of a "black swan" to pull the trigger.
srevuelta
⋅
I REALLY LIKE YOUR ANALYSIS, I THINK WE ARE IN TOP , THE RSI DIVERGENCE IS TO BE CAUTIOUS
THANKS FOR YOUR GRAPHIC
Barrabert
⋅
It looks really scary. In my opinion exactly that's the reason why it will not collapse, but go into a huge parabolic bubble. Too many people are waiting for a crash, it would be too easy. But God will show. It's just a humble opinion without any deep technical background.
DariusKvedaravicius
⋅
What if you zoom out even more? Since last financial crisis?
Imho, agree, we gonna have a mild correction so far to previous top
AMERICANHANDYMAN
⋅
Too many looking at the 1min and not the 1month
gghsusa
⋅
@AMERICANHANDYMAN, yes sir! And what's worse, most of the new blood starts on that 1min or less timeframe.. sheesh.. I'd equate that to letting 16-year olds drive F1 racecars instead of the slow, reliable sedan that will see them through to at least their 24th birthday.. maybe then they can play around a little.
bruverton
⋅
Hi there... thanks for sharing you TA - what's the name of the indication on "4th time's a charm?" chart
Barrabert
⋅
I expect a major correction to start on Bitcoin within some weeks. Everything is connected. But I think the uptrend is still in progress in general and I see no reason to be interrupted yet. God will show.